Points
73Points expected by the market
57.50Gap
+15.50Yield
+43.9%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.72 | +34.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 5 | 11 | +2.42 | +18.2% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 24 | 35 | +2.91 | +18.2% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 16 | 24 | +9.45 | +91.1% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.72 | +34.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 4 | 10 | +3.23 | +47.8% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 16 | 24 | +1.59 | +16.5% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 2 | 1 | −0.84 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 1 | 1 | −0.81 | −100.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 8 | 11 | +1.32 | +21.6% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 14 | 23 | +10.29 | +118.4% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Coventry · Away9 Aug 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.16 |
| M2 | Oxford · Home17 Aug 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.24 | +1.40 |
| M3 | Blackburn · Home23 Aug 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.52 | −0.12 |
| M4 | Bristol City · Away30 Aug 2025 | L 2-4 | 0 | −0.95 | −1.07 |
| M5 | Swansea · Away13 Sep 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.98 |
| M6 | Southampton · Home20 Sep 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.78 | +0.80 |
| M7 | Watford · Away27 Sep 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.24 | −0.44 |
| M8 | Preston · Home30 Sep 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.67 | −1.12 |
| M9 | Sheffield United · Home4 Oct 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.60 | +0.49 |
| M10 | Birmingham · Away18 Oct 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +2.10 | +2.58 |
| M11 | Leicester · Home21 Oct 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.91 | +4.49 |
| M12 | Charlton · Home25 Oct 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.47 | +4.02 |
| M13 | Norwich · Away1 Nov 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.90 | +5.92 |
| M14 | Derby · Away4 Nov 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.11 | +4.81 |
| M15 | Portsmouth · Home8 Nov 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.29 | +6.10 |
| M16 | Queens Park Rangers · Away22 Nov 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.04 | +5.07 |
| M17 | Ipswich · Home25 Nov 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.86 | +4.20 |
| M18 | Stoke · Away29 Nov 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.15 | +6.36 |
| M19 | Middlesbrough · Home5 Dec 2025 | L 1-4 | 0 | −1.29 | +5.07 |
| M20 | Wrexham · Home10 Dec 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.56 | +6.63 |
| M21 | Millwall · Away13 Dec 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.96 | +8.59 |
| M22 | West Bromwich Albion · Home20 Dec 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.71 | +10.30 |
| M23 | Sheffield Wednesday · Away26 Dec 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.81 | +9.49 |
| M24 | Middlesbrough · Away29 Dec 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.19 | +11.68 |
| M25 | Stoke · Home1 Jan 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.54 | +10.14 |
| M26 | Southampton · Away17 Jan 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.24 | +12.38 |
| M27 | Preston · Away20 Jan 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.82 | +14.20 |
| M28 | Swansea · Home24 Jan 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.43 | +15.63 |
| M29 | Blackburn · Away31 Jan 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.84 | +17.47 |
| M30 | Watford · Home3 Feb 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.48 | +16.99 |
| M31 | Bristol City · Home7 Feb 2026 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.42 | +15.56 |
| M32 | Queens Park Rangers · Home21 Feb 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.53 | +14.04 |
| M33 | Derby · Home24 Feb 2026 | W 4-2 | 3 | +1.49 | +15.52 |
| M34 | Portsmouth · Away28 Feb 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.01 | +17.54 |
| M35 | Ipswich · Away3 Mar 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.63 | +16.91 |
| M36 | Millwall · Home7 Mar 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.23 | +15.68 |
| M37 | Wrexham · Away10 Mar 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.97 | +17.65 |
| M38 | West Bromwich Albion · Away14 Mar 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.07 | +16.58 |
| M39 | Sheffield Wednesday · Home21 Mar 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.72 | +17.29 |
| M40 | Oxford · Away3 Apr 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.25 | +17.04 |
| M41 | Coventry · Home6 Apr 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.02 | +17.06 |
| M42 | Sheffield United · Away11 Apr 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.90 | +16.16 |
| M43 | Birmingham · Home18 Apr 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.41 | +15.75 |
| M44 | Leicester · Away21 Apr 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.15 | +15.60 |
| M45 | Charlton · Away25 Apr 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.49 | +14.11 |
| M46 | Norwich · Home2 May 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.38 | +15.50 |
| Total | 73 | +15.50 | |||