Points
84Points expected by the market
84.39Gap
−0.39Yield
−12.6%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 9 | 23 | +2.39 | +3.6% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 26 | 47 | −1.31 | −11.2% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 11 | 14 | −1.48 | −29.1% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 8 | 20 | +1.83 | +1.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 14 | 29 | +1.85 | −2.7% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 1 | 1 | −0.53 | −100.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.57 | +24.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 12 | 18 | −3.15 | −21.2% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 10 | 13 | −0.95 | −22.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Birmingham · Away8 Aug 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.30 |
| M2 | Southampton · Home17 Aug 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.73 | −1.04 |
| M3 | Preston · Away23 Aug 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.59 | −2.63 |
| M4 | Derby · Home30 Aug 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −1.09 | −3.73 |
| M5 | Sheffield United · Home12 Sep 2025 | W 5-0 | 3 | +1.12 | −2.61 |
| M6 | Portsmouth · Home27 Sep 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.77 | −1.84 |
| M7 | Bristol City · Away30 Sep 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.42 | −2.25 |
| M8 | Norwich · Home5 Oct 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.98 | −1.27 |
| M9 | Middlesbrough · Away17 Oct 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.46 | −2.73 |
| M10 | Charlton · Home21 Oct 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −2.03 | −4.76 |
| M11 | West Bromwich Albion · Home25 Oct 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.25 | −3.51 |
| M12 | Queens Park Rangers · Away1 Nov 2025 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.38 | −2.12 |
| M13 | Watford · Home4 Nov 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.96 | −3.08 |
| M14 | Swansea · Away8 Nov 2025 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.38 | −1.70 |
| M15 | Wrexham · Home22 Nov 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −1.15 | −2.85 |
| M16 | Hull · Away25 Nov 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.12 | −1.74 |
| M17 | Oxford · Away28 Nov 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −2.03 | −3.77 |
| M18 | Blackburn · Away2 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.70 | −4.47 |
| M19 | Coventry · Home6 Dec 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.36 | −3.10 |
| M20 | Stoke · Home10 Dec 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.96 | −2.14 |
| M21 | Leicester · Away13 Dec 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.56 | −3.70 |
| M22 | Sheffield Wednesday · Home20 Dec 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.49 | −3.21 |
| M23 | Millwall · Away26 Dec 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.70 | −3.91 |
| M24 | Coventry · Away29 Dec 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.81 | −2.10 |
| M25 | Oxford · Home1 Jan 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.72 | −1.38 |
| M26 | Blackburn · Home17 Jan 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.87 | −0.51 |
| M27 | Bristol City · Home20 Jan 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.01 | +0.50 |
| M28 | Sheffield United · Away24 Jan 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.40 | −0.90 |
| M29 | Preston · Home31 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.27 | −2.17 |
| M30 | Derby · Away7 Feb 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.28 | −0.89 |
| M31 | Wrexham · Away21 Feb 2026 | L 3-5 | 0 | −1.60 | −2.48 |
| M32 | Watford · Away24 Feb 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.48 | −1.01 |
| M33 | Swansea · Home28 Feb 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.98 | −0.02 |
| M34 | Hull · Home3 Mar 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.84 | +0.81 |
| M35 | Leicester · Home7 Mar 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.09 | −0.27 |
| M36 | Stoke · Away10 Mar 2026 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.98 | −1.26 |
| M37 | Sheffield Wednesday · Away14 Mar 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.57 | −0.69 |
| M38 | Millwall · Home21 Mar 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.90 | −1.59 |
| M39 | Birmingham · Home6 Apr 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.97 | −0.62 |
| M40 | Norwich · Away11 Apr 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.58 | +0.96 |
| M41 | Portsmouth · Away14 Apr 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.67 | −0.71 |
| M42 | Middlesbrough · Home19 Apr 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.53 | −1.24 |
| M43 | Charlton · Away22 Apr 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.95 | −0.29 |
| M44 | West Bromwich Albion · Away25 Apr 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.51 | −0.80 |
| M45 | Southampton · Away28 Apr 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.96 |
| M46 | Queens Park Rangers · Home2 May 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.57 | −0.39 |
| Total | 84 | −0.39 | |||