Points
52Points expected by the market
65.40Gap
−13.40Yield
−35.3%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 2 | 4 | −0.56 | −37.5% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 15 | 12 | −14.31 | −72.6% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 20 | 31 | +4.32 | +22.1% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 9 | 5 | −2.85 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.56 | +25.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 12 | 11 | −10.25 | −65.8% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 9 | 13 | +0.54 | +22.2% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 1 | +0.09 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 1 | −1.12 | −100.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 3 | 1 | −4.06 | −100.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 11 | 18 | +3.78 | +21.9% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 8 | 4 | −2.94 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Sheffield Wednesday · Home10 Aug 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.56 | +0.56 |
| M2 | Preston · Away16 Aug 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.71 | −1.15 |
| M3 | Charlton · Away23 Aug 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.56 | +0.41 |
| M4 | Birmingham · Home29 Aug 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.58 | +1.99 |
| M5 | Oxford · Away13 Sep 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.71 | +1.28 |
| M6 | Coventry · Home20 Sep 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.42 | +0.86 |
| M7 | West Bromwich Albion · Away26 Sep 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.71 |
| M8 | Wrexham · Home30 Sep 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.84 | −0.13 |
| M9 | Swansea · Away4 Oct 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.68 | +1.55 |
| M10 | Portsmouth · Home18 Oct 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.08 | +0.47 |
| M11 | Hull · Away21 Oct 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.64 | −1.17 |
| M12 | Millwall · Away25 Oct 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.49 | −2.66 |
| M13 | Blackburn · Home1 Nov 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.87 | −4.53 |
| M14 | Middlesbrough · Home4 Nov 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.60 | −5.12 |
| M15 | Norwich · Away8 Nov 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.50 | −3.62 |
| M16 | Stoke · Home22 Nov 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.34 | −2.29 |
| M17 | Southampton · Away25 Nov 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.97 | −3.25 |
| M18 | Sheffield United · Home29 Nov 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.48 | −4.73 |
| M19 | Derby · Away6 Dec 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.65 | −3.08 |
| M20 | Bristol City · Away10 Dec 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.08 | −3.16 |
| M21 | Ipswich · Home13 Dec 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.86 | −1.31 |
| M22 | Queens Park Rangers · Away20 Dec 2025 | L 1-4 | 0 | −1.28 | −2.59 |
| M23 | Watford · Home26 Dec 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.53 | −4.12 |
| M24 | Derby · Home29 Dec 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.35 | −2.76 |
| M25 | Sheffield United · Away1 Jan 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.87 | −3.64 |
| M26 | West Bromwich Albion · Home5 Jan 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.72 | −1.92 |
| M27 | Coventry · Away17 Jan 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.77 | −2.68 |
| M28 | Wrexham · Away20 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.17 | −2.85 |
| M29 | Oxford · Home24 Jan 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.82 | −4.66 |
| M30 | Charlton · Home31 Jan 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.77 | −6.43 |
| M31 | Birmingham · Away7 Feb 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.84 | −7.27 |
| M32 | Southampton · Home10 Feb 2026 | L 3-4 | 0 | −1.27 | −8.54 |
| M33 | Stoke · Away21 Feb 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.20 | −8.74 |
| M34 | Middlesbrough · Away24 Feb 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.33 | −8.40 |
| M35 | Norwich · Home28 Feb 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.43 | −9.84 |
| M36 | Ipswich · Away7 Mar 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.31 | −9.53 |
| M37 | Bristol City · Home10 Mar 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.53 | −8.01 |
| M38 | Queens Park Rangers · Home14 Mar 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.82 | −9.83 |
| M39 | Watford · Away21 Mar 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.06 | −9.88 |
| M40 | Preston · Home3 Apr 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.81 | −10.69 |
| M41 | Sheffield Wednesday · Away6 Apr 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.12 | −11.82 |
| M42 | Swansea · Home11 Apr 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.76 | −13.57 |
| M43 | Portsmouth · Away18 Apr 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.19 | −14.77 |
| M44 | Hull · Home21 Apr 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.59 | −15.36 |
| M45 | Millwall · Home24 Apr 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.09 | −15.27 |
| M46 | Blackburn · Away2 May 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.87 | −13.40 |
| Total | 52 | −13.40 | |||