Points
80Points expected by the market
76.13Gap
+3.87Yield
+6.6%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 6 | 6 | −7.70 | −81.2% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 19 | 37 | +2.80 | −2.7% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 21 | 37 | +8.77 | +40.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 6 | 6 | −7.70 | −81.2% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 13 | 27 | +3.23 | +14.8% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 4 | 9 | +3.43 | +89.5% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 6 | 10 | −0.43 | −40.7% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 17 | 28 | +5.34 | +28.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Swansea · Home9 Aug 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.33 | +1.33 |
| M2 | Millwall · Away16 Aug 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.87 | +3.21 |
| M3 | Norwich · Away23 Aug 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.76 | +4.96 |
| M4 | Sheffield United · Home30 Aug 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.41 | +6.37 |
| M5 | Preston · Away13 Sep 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.52 | +5.86 |
| M6 | West Bromwich Albion · Home19 Sep 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.41 | +7.27 |
| M7 | Southampton · Away27 Sep 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.24 | +7.03 |
| M8 | Stoke · Home30 Sep 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.79 | +6.24 |
| M9 | Portsmouth · Away4 Oct 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.50 | +4.74 |
| M10 | Ipswich · Home17 Oct 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.75 | +6.49 |
| M11 | Sheffield Wednesday · Away22 Oct 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.11 | +7.60 |
| M12 | Wrexham · Home25 Oct 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.87 | +6.73 |
| M13 | Watford · Away1 Nov 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.36 | +5.37 |
| M14 | Leicester · Away4 Nov 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.12 | +5.24 |
| M15 | Birmingham · Home8 Nov 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.55 | +6.79 |
| M16 | Oxford · Away22 Nov 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.64 | +6.15 |
| M17 | Coventry · Home25 Nov 2025 | L 2-4 | 0 | −1.32 | +4.82 |
| M18 | Derby · Home29 Nov 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.28 | +6.11 |
| M19 | Hull · Away5 Dec 2025 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.56 | +7.66 |
| M20 | Charlton · Away9 Dec 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.53 | +9.19 |
| M21 | Queens Park Rangers · Home13 Dec 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.24 | +10.43 |
| M22 | Bristol City · Away20 Dec 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.42 | +9.01 |
| M23 | Blackburn · Home26 Dec 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.90 | +8.10 |
| M24 | Hull · Home29 Dec 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.95 | +6.15 |
| M25 | Derby · Away1 Jan 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.47 | +4.69 |
| M26 | Southampton · Home4 Jan 2026 | W 4-0 | 3 | +1.46 | +6.15 |
| M27 | West Bromwich Albion · Away16 Jan 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.72 | +7.87 |
| M28 | Stoke · Away21 Jan 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.56 | +9.42 |
| M29 | Preston · Home24 Jan 2026 | W 4-0 | 3 | +0.90 | +10.32 |
| M30 | Norwich · Home31 Jan 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.10 | +11.42 |
| M31 | Sheffield United · Away9 Feb 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.78 | +13.20 |
| M32 | Coventry · Away16 Feb 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.21 | +11.99 |
| M33 | Oxford · Home21 Feb 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −1.26 | +10.73 |
| M34 | Leicester · Home24 Feb 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.12 | +9.61 |
| M35 | Birmingham · Away2 Mar 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.60 | +11.21 |
| M36 | Queens Park Rangers · Away8 Mar 2026 | W 4-0 | 3 | +1.21 | +12.42 |
| M37 | Charlton · Home11 Mar 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −2.38 | +10.04 |
| M38 | Bristol City · Home14 Mar 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.20 | +8.84 |
| M39 | Blackburn · Away21 Mar 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.80 | +8.04 |
| M40 | Millwall · Home3 Apr 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.89 | +6.15 |
| M41 | Swansea · Away6 Apr 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.74 | +5.41 |
| M42 | Portsmouth · Home11 Apr 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −2.14 | +3.27 |
| M43 | Ipswich · Away19 Apr 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.20 | +3.07 |
| M44 | Sheffield Wednesday · Home22 Apr 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.40 | +3.47 |
| M45 | Watford · Home25 Apr 2026 | W 5-1 | 3 | +0.96 | +4.43 |
| M46 | Wrexham · Away2 May 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.56 | +3.87 |
| Total | 80 | +3.87 | |||