Points
65Points expected by the market
61.68Gap
+3.32Yield
+9.2%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.48 | +18.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 11 | 15 | −3.91 | −28.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 24 | 38 | +6.92 | +41.1% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 10 | 9 | −0.17 | −27.2% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.48 | +18.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 11 | 15 | −3.91 | −28.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 11 | 12 | −2.45 | +3.7% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 13 | 26 | +9.37 | +72.7% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 10 | 9 | −0.17 | −27.2% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Millwall · Home9 Aug 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.61 | −1.61 |
| M2 | Portsmouth · Away16 Aug 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.68 | +0.08 |
| M3 | Middlesbrough · Home23 Aug 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.48 | −1.40 |
| M4 | Blackburn · Away30 Aug 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.85 | +0.44 |
| M5 | Coventry · Away13 Sep 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.55 |
| M6 | Wrexham · Home20 Sep 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.67 | −1.12 |
| M7 | Stoke · Away27 Sep 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.01 | −1.13 |
| M8 | West Bromwich Albion · Home1 Oct 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.15 | −2.28 |
| M9 | Ipswich · Away5 Oct 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.75 | −3.03 |
| M10 | Bristol City · Home18 Oct 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.42 | −4.45 |
| M11 | Derby · Away21 Oct 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.19 | −5.64 |
| M12 | Swansea · Away25 Oct 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.19 | −6.83 |
| M13 | Hull · Home1 Nov 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.64 | −8.47 |
| M14 | Sheffield Wednesday · Away5 Nov 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.49 | −8.96 |
| M15 | Leicester · Home8 Nov 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.23 | −10.19 |
| M16 | Birmingham · Away22 Nov 2025 | L 1-4 | 0 | −0.83 | −11.02 |
| M17 | Oxford · Home25 Nov 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.80 | −11.82 |
| M18 | Queens Park Rangers · Home29 Nov 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.60 | −10.22 |
| M19 | Watford · Away6 Dec 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −0.92 | −11.14 |
| M20 | Sheffield United · Away9 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.18 | −10.96 |
| M21 | Southampton · Home13 Dec 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.93 | −9.03 |
| M22 | Preston · Away20 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.16 | −9.19 |
| M23 | Charlton · Home26 Dec 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.35 | −7.84 |
| M24 | Watford · Home29 Dec 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.39 | −9.23 |
| M25 | Queens Park Rangers · Away1 Jan 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.95 | −7.28 |
| M26 | Stoke · Home4 Jan 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.70 | −8.97 |
| M27 | Wrexham · Away17 Jan 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.85 | −7.12 |
| M28 | West Bromwich Albion · Away20 Jan 2026 | W 5-0 | 3 | +1.96 | −5.16 |
| M29 | Coventry · Home26 Jan 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.81 | −3.35 |
| M30 | Middlesbrough · Away31 Jan 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.86 | −4.21 |
| M31 | Blackburn · Home7 Feb 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.42 | −2.79 |
| M32 | Oxford · Away10 Feb 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.53 | −1.27 |
| M33 | Birmingham · Home21 Feb 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.39 | −2.66 |
| M34 | Sheffield Wednesday · Home25 Feb 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.48 | −2.18 |
| M35 | Leicester · Away28 Feb 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.71 | −0.47 |
| M36 | Sheffield United · Home11 Mar 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.57 | +1.10 |
| M37 | Preston · Home14 Mar 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.92 | +2.03 |
| M38 | Southampton · Away18 Mar 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.00 | +1.02 |
| M39 | Charlton · Away21 Mar 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.45 | +2.47 |
| M40 | Portsmouth · Home3 Apr 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.67 | +1.80 |
| M41 | Millwall · Away6 Apr 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.89 | +3.69 |
| M42 | Ipswich · Home11 Apr 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.30 | +2.39 |
| M43 | Bristol City · Away18 Apr 2026 | W 4-2 | 3 | +1.58 | +3.97 |
| M44 | Derby · Home21 Apr 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.42 | +5.40 |
| M45 | Swansea · Home25 Apr 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.94 | +4.46 |
| M46 | Hull · Away2 May 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.14 | +3.32 |
| Total | 65 | +3.32 | |||