Points
47Points expected by the market
49.62Gap
−2.62Yield
−18.0%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.94 | +53.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 19 | 24 | −1.40 | −12.9% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 26 | 20 | −2.16 | −24.4% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.94 | +53.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 16 | 17 | −4.71 | −32.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 6 | 9 | +3.31 | +60.5% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 3 | 7 | +3.31 | +91.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 20 | 11 | −5.47 | −49.9% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Portsmouth · Home9 Aug 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.36 | −1.36 |
| M2 | Hull · Away17 Aug 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −0.96 | −2.32 |
| M3 | Birmingham · Away23 Aug 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.63 | −2.95 |
| M4 | Coventry · Home30 Aug 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.18 | −2.77 |
| M5 | Leicester · Home13 Sep 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.02 | −2.79 |
| M6 | Bristol City · Away21 Sep 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +2.26 | −0.53 |
| M7 | Sheffield United · Home27 Sep 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.22 | −1.75 |
| M8 | Queens Park Rangers · Away1 Oct 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.10 | −1.85 |
| M9 | Watford · Away4 Oct 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.96 | −2.81 |
| M10 | Derby · Home18 Oct 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.58 | −1.23 |
| M11 | Wrexham · Away22 Oct 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.04 | −2.27 |
| M12 | Sheffield Wednesday · Away25 Oct 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.52 | −0.75 |
| M13 | Millwall · Home1 Nov 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.36 | −1.12 |
| M14 | Stoke · Home4 Nov 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.21 | −2.33 |
| M15 | West Bromwich Albion · Away8 Nov 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.82 | −3.15 |
| M16 | Middlesbrough · Home22 Nov 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.08 | −3.23 |
| M17 | Norwich · Away25 Nov 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.07 | −3.16 |
| M18 | Ipswich · Home28 Nov 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.27 | −0.89 |
| M19 | Swansea · Away6 Dec 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.06 | −1.95 |
| M20 | Blackburn · Away9 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.14 | −1.81 |
| M21 | Preston · Home13 Dec 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.37 | −3.18 |
| M22 | Charlton · Away20 Dec 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.05 | −4.23 |
| M23 | Southampton · Home26 Dec 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.01 | −2.21 |
| M24 | Swansea · Home29 Dec 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.36 | −3.58 |
| M25 | Ipswich · Away1 Jan 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.52 | −4.09 |
| M26 | Bristol City · Home17 Jan 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.16 | −4.26 |
| M27 | Queens Park Rangers · Home20 Jan 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.49 | −4.75 |
| M28 | Leicester · Away24 Jan 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.09 | −2.66 |
| M29 | Birmingham · Home31 Jan 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.06 | −3.71 |
| M30 | Sheffield United · Away3 Feb 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.57 | −4.28 |
| M31 | Coventry · Away7 Feb 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.36 | −3.92 |
| M32 | Norwich · Home10 Feb 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.23 | −5.15 |
| M33 | Middlesbrough · Away21 Feb 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.46 | −4.69 |
| M34 | Stoke · Away25 Feb 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.94 | −5.63 |
| M35 | West Bromwich Albion · Home28 Feb 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.82 | −3.81 |
| M36 | Preston · Away6 Mar 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.89 | −1.92 |
| M37 | Blackburn · Home11 Mar 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.65 | −0.28 |
| M38 | Charlton · Home14 Mar 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.57 | −0.85 |
| M39 | Southampton · Away21 Mar 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.75 | −1.60 |
| M40 | Hull · Home3 Apr 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.47 | −2.08 |
| M41 | Portsmouth · Away6 Apr 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.02 | −2.06 |
| M42 | Watford · Home11 Apr 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.53 | −0.53 |
| M43 | Derby · Away18 Apr 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.01 | −1.54 |
| M44 | Wrexham · Home21 Apr 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.47 | −3.02 |
| M45 | Sheffield Wednesday · Home25 Apr 2026 | W 4-1 | 3 | +0.94 | −2.08 |
| M46 | Millwall · Away2 May 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.55 | −2.62 |
| Total | 47 | −2.62 | |||