Points
55Points expected by the market
55.36Gap
−0.36Yield
−7.2%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 6 | 7 | −3.45 | −33.5% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 22 | 33 | +3.86 | +10.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 18 | 15 | −0.77 | −19.9% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 5 | 4 | −4.67 | −57.6% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 16 | 23 | +1.72 | −2.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 2 | 3 | +0.90 | +84.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 1 | 3 | +1.22 | +87.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 6 | 10 | +2.13 | +44.2% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 16 | 12 | −1.67 | −32.9% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Oxford · Away9 Aug 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.66 | +1.66 |
| M2 | Norwich · Home16 Aug 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.40 | +0.26 |
| M3 | West Bromwich Albion · Away23 Aug 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.46 |
| M4 | Preston · Home30 Aug 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.38 | +1.85 |
| M5 | Southampton · Away14 Sep 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.11 | +1.96 |
| M6 | Sheffield Wednesday · Home20 Sep 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.96 | −0.01 |
| M7 | Ipswich · Away27 Sep 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.57 | −0.58 |
| M8 | Watford · Home1 Oct 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.50 | −1.08 |
| M9 | Middlesbrough · Home4 Oct 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.78 | +0.70 |
| M10 | Leicester · Away18 Oct 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.31 | +1.00 |
| M11 | Coventry · Home21 Oct 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.05 | −0.05 |
| M12 | Stoke · Home25 Oct 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.31 | −1.36 |
| M13 | Birmingham · Away1 Nov 2025 | L 0-4 | 0 | −0.76 | −2.12 |
| M14 | Wrexham · Home5 Nov 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.36 | −2.48 |
| M15 | Hull · Away8 Nov 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.02 | −3.50 |
| M16 | Millwall · Home22 Nov 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.49 | −2.01 |
| M17 | Sheffield United · Away26 Nov 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.83 | −2.84 |
| M18 | Bristol City · Home29 Nov 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.32 | −4.16 |
| M19 | Swansea · Away9 Dec 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.01 | −5.17 |
| M20 | Blackburn · Home13 Dec 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.70 | −3.47 |
| M21 | Derby · Away20 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | 0.00 | −3.47 |
| M22 | Queens Park Rangers · Home26 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.20 | −3.67 |
| M23 | Charlton · Home29 Dec 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.52 | −2.15 |
| M24 | Bristol City · Away1 Jan 2026 | L 0-5 | 0 | −0.77 | −2.92 |
| M25 | Sheffield Wednesday · Away17 Jan 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.22 | −1.70 |
| M26 | Watford · Away21 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.11 | −1.59 |
| M27 | Southampton · Home25 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.11 | −1.70 |
| M28 | West Bromwich Albion · Home31 Jan 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.70 | 0.00 |
| M29 | Preston · Away7 Feb 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.32 | −1.32 |
| M30 | Sheffield United · Home14 Feb 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.17 | −2.49 |
| M31 | Charlton · Away17 Feb 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.68 | −0.80 |
| M32 | Millwall · Away21 Feb 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +2.06 | +1.26 |
| M33 | Wrexham · Away24 Feb 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.07 | +0.19 |
| M34 | Hull · Home28 Feb 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.74 | −1.55 |
| M35 | Blackburn · Away7 Mar 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.31 | −1.86 |
| M36 | Swansea · Home10 Mar 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.51 | −3.37 |
| M37 | Derby · Home16 Mar 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.63 | −4.99 |
| M38 | Queens Park Rangers · Away21 Mar 2026 | L 1-6 | 0 | −1.40 | −6.40 |
| M39 | Norwich · Away3 Apr 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.06 | −6.46 |
| M40 | Oxford · Home6 Apr 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.73 | −7.19 |
| M41 | Middlesbrough · Away11 Apr 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.35 | −4.84 |
| M42 | Ipswich · Home14 Apr 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.95 | −2.89 |
| M43 | Leicester · Home18 Apr 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.48 | −1.40 |
| M44 | Coventry · Away21 Apr 2026 | L 1-5 | 0 | −0.71 | −2.12 |
| M45 | Stoke · Away25 Apr 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.82 | −0.30 |
| M46 | Birmingham · Home2 May 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.36 |
| Total | 55 | −0.36 | |||