Points
58Points expected by the market
57.14Gap
+0.86Yield
+3.1%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.70 | +34.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 4 | 4 | −2.59 | −50.5% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 27 | 38 | +2.18 | +5.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 14 | 13 | +0.56 | +11.6% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.70 | +34.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 4 | 4 | −2.59 | −50.5% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 16 | 23 | +1.47 | +18.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 2 | 3 | +1.02 | +84.5% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 11 | 15 | +0.71 | −13.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 12 | 10 | −0.45 | −0.5% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Preston · Home9 Aug 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.39 |
| M2 | Watford · Away16 Aug 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.00 | −1.39 |
| M3 | Coventry · Away23 Aug 2025 | L 1-7 | 0 | −0.63 | −2.02 |
| M4 | Charlton · Home30 Aug 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.83 | −0.19 |
| M5 | Wrexham · Away13 Sep 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.93 | +1.74 |
| M6 | Stoke · Home20 Sep 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.72 | +3.46 |
| M7 | Sheffield Wednesday · Away27 Sep 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.53 | +2.93 |
| M8 | Oxford · Home1 Oct 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.63 | +2.30 |
| M9 | Bristol City · Away4 Oct 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.06 | +4.36 |
| M10 | Millwall · Home18 Oct 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.38 | +2.98 |
| M11 | Swansea · Away22 Oct 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.90 | +4.88 |
| M12 | Derby · Away25 Oct 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.38 | +3.50 |
| M13 | Ipswich · Home1 Nov 2025 | L 1-4 | 0 | −1.11 | +2.38 |
| M14 | Southampton · Home5 Nov 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.35 | +1.04 |
| M15 | Sheffield United · Away8 Nov 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.94 |
| M16 | Hull · Home22 Nov 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.30 | +2.25 |
| M17 | Blackburn · Away26 Nov 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.79 | +4.04 |
| M18 | Norwich · Away29 Nov 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.33 | +2.71 |
| M19 | West Bromwich Albion · Home6 Dec 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.52 | +4.22 |
| M20 | Birmingham · Home9 Dec 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.72 | +5.94 |
| M21 | Middlesbrough · Away13 Dec 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.98 | +4.96 |
| M22 | Leicester · Home20 Dec 2025 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.55 | +6.52 |
| M23 | Portsmouth · Away26 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.52 | +6.00 |
| M24 | West Bromwich Albion · Away29 Dec 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.91 | +5.08 |
| M25 | Norwich · Home1 Jan 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.69 | +3.40 |
| M26 | Sheffield Wednesday · Home4 Jan 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.70 | +4.10 |
| M27 | Stoke · Away17 Jan 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.07 | +4.03 |
| M28 | Oxford · Away20 Jan 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.21 | +3.81 |
| M29 | Wrexham · Home24 Jan 2026 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.49 | +2.32 |
| M30 | Coventry · Home31 Jan 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.97 | +4.29 |
| M31 | Charlton · Away6 Feb 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.42 | +3.87 |
| M32 | Blackburn · Home14 Feb 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.58 | +2.29 |
| M33 | Hull · Away21 Feb 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.81 | +4.10 |
| M34 | Southampton · Away24 Feb 2026 | L 0-5 | 0 | −0.86 | +3.24 |
| M35 | Sheffield United · Home28 Feb 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.17 | +2.07 |
| M36 | Middlesbrough · Home8 Mar 2026 | L 0-4 | 0 | −0.95 | +1.12 |
| M37 | Birmingham · Away11 Mar 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.81 | +0.30 |
| M38 | Leicester · Away14 Mar 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +2.08 | +2.38 |
| M39 | Portsmouth · Home21 Mar 2026 | W 6-1 | 3 | +1.70 | +4.08 |
| M40 | Watford · Home3 Apr 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.60 | +5.68 |
| M41 | Preston · Away6 Apr 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.30 | +5.38 |
| M42 | Bristol City · Home11 Apr 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.51 | +4.86 |
| M43 | Millwall · Away18 Apr 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.84 | +4.02 |
| M44 | Swansea · Home21 Apr 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.54 | +2.49 |
| M45 | Derby · Home25 Apr 2026 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.21 | +1.28 |
| M46 | Ipswich · Away2 May 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.42 | +0.86 |
| Total | 58 | +0.86 | |||