Points
60Points expected by the market
71.35Gap
−11.35Yield
−13.9%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 2 | 6 | +1.19 | +27.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 18 | 22 | −10.64 | −37.9% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 24 | 32 | −0.20 | +7.9% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 2 | 0 | −1.70 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 2 | 6 | +1.19 | +27.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 16 | 19 | −10.24 | −42.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 5 | 6 | −1.20 | +0.6% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 2 | 3 | −0.40 | −2.5% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 19 | 26 | +1.00 | +9.8% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 2 | 0 | −1.70 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Bristol City · Home9 Aug 2025 | L 1-4 | 0 | −1.93 | −1.93 |
| M2 | Swansea · Away16 Aug 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.28 | −3.22 |
| M3 | Millwall · Home23 Aug 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.80 | −5.02 |
| M4 | Middlesbrough · Away30 Aug 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.14 | −6.16 |
| M5 | Ipswich · Away12 Sep 2025 | L 0-5 | 0 | −0.87 | −7.03 |
| M6 | Charlton · Home20 Sep 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.82 | −8.85 |
| M7 | Oxford · Away27 Sep 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.50 | −7.35 |
| M8 | Southampton · Home30 Sep 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.43 | −8.78 |
| M9 | Hull · Away4 Oct 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.32 | −10.10 |
| M10 | Watford · Home18 Oct 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.35 | −8.75 |
| M11 | Blackburn · Away21 Oct 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.70 | −7.05 |
| M12 | Preston · Away24 Oct 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.30 | −8.35 |
| M13 | Derby · Home1 Nov 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.84 | −10.19 |
| M14 | Coventry · Away4 Nov 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.83 | −11.01 |
| M15 | Queens Park Rangers · Home8 Nov 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.63 | −11.64 |
| M16 | Sheffield Wednesday · Away23 Nov 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.29 | −10.36 |
| M17 | Portsmouth · Home26 Nov 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.08 | −9.28 |
| M18 | Leicester · Away29 Nov 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.76 | −7.52 |
| M19 | Stoke · Home6 Dec 2025 | W 4-0 | 3 | +1.33 | −6.18 |
| M20 | Norwich · Home9 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.96 | −7.14 |
| M21 | West Bromwich Albion · Away12 Dec 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.25 | −8.39 |
| M22 | Birmingham · Home20 Dec 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.49 | −6.90 |
| M23 | Wrexham · Away26 Dec 2025 | L 3-5 | 0 | −1.52 | −8.42 |
| M24 | Stoke · Away29 Dec 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.60 | −6.82 |
| M25 | Leicester · Home1 Jan 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.12 | −5.70 |
| M26 | Charlton · Away17 Jan 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.69 | −7.40 |
| M27 | Southampton · Away21 Jan 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.15 | −8.55 |
| M28 | Ipswich · Home24 Jan 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.68 | −6.87 |
| M29 | Millwall · Away31 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.24 | −7.11 |
| M30 | Oxford · Home3 Feb 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.77 | −6.33 |
| M31 | Middlesbrough · Home9 Feb 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.51 | −7.85 |
| M32 | Portsmouth · Away14 Feb 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.45 | −6.40 |
| M33 | Sheffield Wednesday · Home22 Feb 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.41 | −5.99 |
| M34 | Coventry · Home25 Feb 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.43 | −7.42 |
| M35 | Queens Park Rangers · Away28 Feb 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.45 | −5.97 |
| M36 | West Bromwich Albion · Home7 Mar 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.93 | −6.90 |
| M37 | Norwich · Away11 Mar 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.30 | −8.19 |
| M38 | Birmingham · Away14 Mar 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.10 | −8.29 |
| M39 | Wrexham · Home21 Mar 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.74 | −10.03 |
| M40 | Swansea · Home3 Apr 2026 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.92 | −10.95 |
| M41 | Bristol City · Away6 Apr 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.33 | −12.28 |
| M42 | Hull · Home11 Apr 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.14 | −11.14 |
| M43 | Watford · Away18 Apr 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.54 | −9.60 |
| M44 | Blackburn · Home22 Apr 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.68 | −11.28 |
| M45 | Preston · Home25 Apr 2026 | L 2-3 | 0 | −2.00 | −13.29 |
| M46 | Derby · Away2 May 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.93 | −11.35 |
| Total | 60 | −11.35 | |||