Points
18Points expected by the market
32.63Gap
−14.63Yield
−78.0%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 6 | 2 | −5.05 | −100.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 40 | 16 | −9.58 | −74.7% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 6 | 2 | −5.05 | −100.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 17 | 8 | −5.16 | −71.1% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 23 | 8 | −4.41 | −77.4% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Leicester · Away10 Aug 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.40 | −0.40 |
| M2 | Stoke · Home16 Aug 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.10 | −1.51 |
| M3 | Wrexham · Away23 Aug 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.26 | −1.25 |
| M4 | Swansea · Home30 Aug 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.14 | −2.39 |
| M5 | Bristol City · Home13 Sep 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.02 | −3.41 |
| M6 | Portsmouth · Away20 Sep 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +2.21 | −1.20 |
| M7 | Queens Park Rangers · Home27 Sep 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.20 | −1.40 |
| M8 | Birmingham · Away30 Sep 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.38 | −1.02 |
| M9 | Coventry · Home4 Oct 2025 | L 0-5 | 0 | −0.81 | −1.83 |
| M10 | Charlton · Away18 Oct 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.79 | −2.61 |
| M11 | Middlesbrough · Home22 Oct 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.86 | −3.47 |
| M12 | Oxford · Home25 Oct 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.23 | −4.71 |
| M13 | West Bromwich Albion · Away1 Nov 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.34 | −4.37 |
| M14 | Norwich · Home5 Nov 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.24 | −4.61 |
| M15 | Southampton · Away8 Nov 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.64 | −5.25 |
| M16 | Sheffield United · Home23 Nov 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.02 | −6.27 |
| M17 | Millwall · Away26 Nov 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.77 | −7.04 |
| M18 | Preston · Home29 Nov 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.13 | −8.17 |
| M19 | Watford · Away9 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.28 | −7.90 |
| M20 | Derby · Home15 Dec 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.09 | −8.98 |
| M21 | Ipswich · Away20 Dec 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.35 | −9.33 |
| M22 | Hull · Home26 Dec 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.07 | −9.26 |
| M23 | Blackburn · Home29 Dec 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.14 | −9.12 |
| M24 | Preston · Away1 Jan 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.67 | −9.79 |
| M25 | Queens Park Rangers · Away4 Jan 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.51 | −10.30 |
| M26 | Portsmouth · Home17 Jan 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.95 | −11.25 |
| M27 | Birmingham · Home20 Jan 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.59 | −11.84 |
| M28 | Bristol City · Away24 Jan 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.39 | −12.23 |
| M29 | Wrexham · Home31 Jan 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.70 | −12.94 |
| M30 | Blackburn · Away3 Feb 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.49 | −13.43 |
| M31 | Swansea · Away8 Feb 2026 | L 0-4 | 0 | −0.40 | −13.83 |
| M32 | Millwall · Home14 Feb 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.50 | −14.33 |
| M33 | Sheffield United · Away22 Feb 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.30 | −14.62 |
| M34 | Norwich · Away25 Feb 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.34 | −14.96 |
| M35 | Southampton · Home28 Feb 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.43 | −15.40 |
| M36 | Derby · Away7 Mar 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.43 | −15.83 |
| M37 | Watford · Home10 Mar 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.43 | −15.40 |
| M38 | Ipswich · Home14 Mar 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.40 | −15.80 |
| M39 | Hull · Away21 Mar 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.53 | −16.33 |
| M40 | Stoke · Away3 Apr 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.58 | −16.91 |
| M41 | Leicester · Home6 Apr 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.35 | −16.57 |
| M42 | Coventry · Away11 Apr 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.72 | −15.84 |
| M43 | Charlton · Home18 Apr 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.04 | −15.81 |
| M44 | Middlesbrough · Away22 Apr 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.29 | −16.09 |
| M45 | Oxford · Away25 Apr 2026 | L 1-4 | 0 | −0.72 | −16.81 |
| M46 | West Bromwich Albion · Home2 May 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.18 | −14.63 |
| Total | 18 | −14.63 | |||