Points
57Points expected by the market
63.11Gap
−6.11Yield
−27.2%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 1 | −1.22 | −100.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 13 | 21 | −1.71 | −25.7% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 22 | 32 | +2.85 | +8.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 10 | 3 | −6.04 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 13 | 21 | −1.71 | −25.7% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 10 | 16 | +2.28 | +21.7% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 1 | −1.22 | −100.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 12 | 16 | +0.57 | −2.9% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 10 | 3 | −6.04 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Charlton · Away9 Aug 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.17 | −1.17 |
| M2 | Queens Park Rangers · Home16 Aug 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.27 | +0.10 |
| M3 | Swansea · Away23 Aug 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.21 |
| M4 | Southampton · Home30 Aug 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.06 |
| M5 | Blackburn · Home13 Sep 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.46 | −1.52 |
| M6 | Millwall · Away22 Sep 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.00 | −2.52 |
| M7 | Hull · Home27 Sep 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.52 | −1.00 |
| M8 | Portsmouth · Away1 Oct 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.21 | −1.20 |
| M9 | Oxford · Home4 Oct 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.24 | +0.04 |
| M10 | Sheffield United · Away18 Oct 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.06 | −1.03 |
| M11 | West Bromwich Albion · Home22 Oct 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.67 | +0.65 |
| M12 | Coventry · Away25 Oct 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.73 | −0.08 |
| M13 | Middlesbrough · Home1 Nov 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.64 | +1.56 |
| M14 | Ipswich · Away4 Nov 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.21 | +1.77 |
| M15 | Bristol City · Home7 Nov 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.64 | +1.12 |
| M16 | Derby · Away22 Nov 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.77 | +2.89 |
| M17 | Preston · Home25 Nov 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.84 | +2.05 |
| M18 | Birmingham · Away1 Dec 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.90 | +1.15 |
| M19 | Norwich · Home6 Dec 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.16 | +2.31 |
| M20 | Sheffield Wednesday · Home9 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.06 | +1.25 |
| M21 | Wrexham · Away13 Dec 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.42 | +0.83 |
| M22 | Stoke · Home20 Dec 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.32 | +2.16 |
| M23 | Leicester · Away26 Dec 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.81 | +3.96 |
| M24 | Norwich · Away29 Dec 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.67 | +5.63 |
| M25 | Birmingham · Home1 Jan 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.45 | +7.08 |
| M26 | Millwall · Home17 Jan 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.62 | +5.47 |
| M27 | Portsmouth · Home21 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.85 | +4.62 |
| M28 | Blackburn · Away24 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.10 | +4.52 |
| M29 | Swansea · Home31 Jan 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.62 | +2.90 |
| M30 | Hull · Away3 Feb 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.23 | +2.67 |
| M31 | Southampton · Away7 Feb 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.01 | +1.66 |
| M32 | Preston · Away14 Feb 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.44 | +1.22 |
| M33 | Derby · Home21 Feb 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.34 | +2.56 |
| M34 | Ipswich · Home24 Feb 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.19 | +1.38 |
| M35 | Bristol City · Away27 Feb 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.74 | +3.11 |
| M36 | Sheffield Wednesday · Away10 Mar 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.22 | +1.90 |
| M37 | Stoke · Away14 Mar 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.38 | +0.51 |
| M38 | Wrexham · Home17 Mar 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.45 | +1.96 |
| M39 | Leicester · Home21 Mar 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.68 | +1.29 |
| M40 | Queens Park Rangers · Away3 Apr 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.31 | −0.03 |
| M41 | Charlton · Home6 Apr 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.74 | −0.77 |
| M42 | Oxford · Away11 Apr 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.24 | −2.01 |
| M43 | Sheffield United · Home18 Apr 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.27 | −3.28 |
| M44 | West Bromwich Albion · Away21 Apr 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.83 | −4.11 |
| M45 | Middlesbrough · Away25 Apr 2026 | L 1-5 | 0 | −0.74 | −4.85 |
| M46 | Coventry · Home2 May 2026 | L 0-4 | 0 | −1.26 | −6.11 |
| Total | 57 | −6.11 | |||