Points
53Points expected by the market
67.90Gap
−14.90Yield
−40.4%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 1 | −1.12 | −100.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 16 | 28 | −0.52 | −7.1% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 23 | 22 | −9.66 | −45.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 6 | 2 | −3.60 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 1 | −1.12 | −100.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 14 | 25 | +0.01 | −9.2% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 7 | 8 | −1.64 | −66.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 0 | −1.07 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 2 | 3 | −0.53 | +8.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 16 | 14 | −8.02 | −36.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 5 | 2 | −2.53 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Blackburn · Home9 Aug 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.21 | +1.21 |
| M2 | Wrexham · Away16 Aug 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.63 | +2.84 |
| M3 | Portsmouth · Home23 Aug 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.95 | +1.89 |
| M4 | Stoke · Away30 Aug 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.67 | +3.57 |
| M5 | Derby · Home13 Sep 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.87 | +1.70 |
| M6 | Middlesbrough · Away19 Sep 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.12 | +0.57 |
| M7 | Leicester · Home26 Sep 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.56 | +0.02 |
| M8 | Norwich · Away1 Oct 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.43 | +1.45 |
| M9 | Millwall · Away4 Oct 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.37 | +0.08 |
| M10 | Preston · Home18 Oct 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.13 | +1.20 |
| M11 | Watford · Away22 Oct 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.37 | −0.17 |
| M12 | Ipswich · Away25 Oct 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.97 | −1.14 |
| M13 | Sheffield Wednesday · Home1 Nov 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −1.12 | −2.26 |
| M14 | Charlton · Away4 Nov 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.29 | −3.55 |
| M15 | Oxford · Home8 Nov 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.08 | −2.47 |
| M16 | Coventry · Away22 Nov 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −0.96 | −3.43 |
| M17 | Birmingham · Home26 Nov 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.28 | −3.71 |
| M18 | Swansea · Home29 Nov 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.18 | −2.53 |
| M19 | Queens Park Rangers · Away6 Dec 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.23 | −3.76 |
| M20 | Southampton · Away9 Dec 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −0.94 | −4.70 |
| M21 | Sheffield United · Home12 Dec 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.53 | −3.17 |
| M22 | Hull · Away20 Dec 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.43 | −4.60 |
| M23 | Bristol City · Home26 Dec 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.66 | −6.26 |
| M24 | Queens Park Rangers · Home29 Dec 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.17 | −5.09 |
| M25 | Swansea · Away1 Jan 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.50 | −6.59 |
| M26 | Leicester · Away5 Jan 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.43 | −8.02 |
| M27 | Middlesbrough · Home16 Jan 2026 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.43 | −9.45 |
| M28 | Norwich · Home20 Jan 2026 | L 0-5 | 0 | −1.68 | −11.13 |
| M29 | Derby · Away23 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.33 | −11.46 |
| M30 | Portsmouth · Away31 Jan 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.39 | −12.85 |
| M31 | Stoke · Home7 Feb 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.63 | −13.48 |
| M32 | Birmingham · Away10 Feb 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.16 | −13.32 |
| M33 | Coventry · Home21 Feb 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.07 | −14.39 |
| M34 | Charlton · Home24 Feb 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.79 | −15.18 |
| M35 | Oxford · Away28 Feb 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.52 | −16.70 |
| M36 | Sheffield United · Away7 Mar 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.17 | −16.53 |
| M37 | Southampton · Home11 Mar 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.18 | −16.71 |
| M38 | Hull · Home14 Mar 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.35 | −15.35 |
| M39 | Bristol City · Away21 Mar 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.64 | −13.72 |
| M40 | Wrexham · Home3 Apr 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.62 | −14.33 |
| M41 | Blackburn · Away6 Apr 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.40 | −14.73 |
| M42 | Millwall · Home10 Apr 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.52 | −15.25 |
| M43 | Preston · Away18 Apr 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.41 | −13.84 |
| M44 | Watford · Home21 Apr 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.08 | −12.76 |
| M45 | Ipswich · Home25 Apr 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.20 | −12.96 |
| M46 | Sheffield Wednesday · Away2 May 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.94 | −14.90 |
| Total | 53 | −14.90 | |||