Points
71Points expected by the market
60.65Gap
+10.35Yield
+13.8%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 12 | 21 | +0.43 | −2.5% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 25 | 35 | +3.47 | +3.6% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 9 | 15 | +6.45 | +63.7% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 11 | 18 | −0.50 | −7.5% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 12 | 19 | +3.15 | +18.7% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.93 | +53.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 13 | 16 | +0.32 | −10.2% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 9 | 15 | +6.45 | +63.7% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Southampton · Away9 Aug 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.94 | −0.94 |
| M2 | West Bromwich Albion · Home16 Aug 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.34 | −2.28 |
| M3 | Sheffield Wednesday · Home23 Aug 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −1.02 | −3.30 |
| M4 | Millwall · Away30 Aug 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.92 | −1.38 |
| M5 | Queens Park Rangers · Home13 Sep 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.65 | −3.03 |
| M6 | Norwich · Away20 Sep 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.93 | −1.10 |
| M7 | Derby · Home27 Sep 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.63 | −1.73 |
| M8 | Leicester · Away30 Sep 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.09 | −1.64 |
| M9 | Birmingham · Home3 Oct 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.30 | −1.95 |
| M10 | Stoke · Away18 Oct 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.10 | −3.05 |
| M11 | Oxford · Home22 Oct 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.32 | −1.73 |
| M12 | Middlesbrough · Away25 Oct 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.12 | −1.61 |
| M13 | Coventry · Home31 Oct 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.82 | +0.22 |
| M14 | Portsmouth · Away5 Nov 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.13 |
| M15 | Charlton · Home8 Nov 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.41 | +1.28 |
| M16 | Ipswich · Away22 Nov 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.37 | +1.65 |
| M17 | Bristol City · Home26 Nov 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.57 | +3.22 |
| M18 | Blackburn · Home29 Nov 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.53 | +2.69 |
| M19 | Preston · Away6 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.18 | +2.51 |
| M20 | Hull · Away10 Dec 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.28 | +1.23 |
| M21 | Watford · Home13 Dec 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.92 |
| M22 | Swansea · Away19 Dec 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.14 | −0.22 |
| M23 | Sheffield United · Home26 Dec 2025 | W 5-3 | 3 | +1.80 | +1.58 |
| M24 | Preston · Home29 Dec 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.38 | +2.96 |
| M25 | Blackburn · Away1 Jan 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.99 | +4.95 |
| M26 | Derby · Away4 Jan 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.87 | +6.82 |
| M27 | Norwich · Home17 Jan 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.58 | +5.24 |
| M28 | Leicester · Home20 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.56 | +4.68 |
| M29 | Queens Park Rangers · Away24 Jan 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.78 | +6.46 |
| M30 | Sheffield Wednesday · Away31 Jan 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.93 | +7.40 |
| M31 | Millwall · Home7 Feb 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.35 | +6.04 |
| M32 | Bristol City · Away17 Feb 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.14 | +5.91 |
| M33 | Ipswich · Home21 Feb 2026 | W 5-3 | 3 | +1.88 | +7.79 |
| M34 | Portsmouth · Home24 Feb 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.36 | +9.14 |
| M35 | Charlton · Away28 Feb 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.46 | +10.60 |
| M36 | Hull · Home10 Mar 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.71 | +8.90 |
| M37 | Swansea · Home13 Mar 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.47 | +10.37 |
| M38 | Watford · Away17 Mar 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.17 | +9.20 |
| M39 | Sheffield United · Away21 Mar 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.00 | +11.19 |
| M40 | West Bromwich Albion · Away3 Apr 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.11 | +11.09 |
| M41 | Southampton · Home7 Apr 2026 | L 1-5 | 0 | −1.38 | +9.71 |
| M42 | Birmingham · Away12 Apr 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.10 | +8.61 |
| M43 | Stoke · Home18 Apr 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.19 | +9.80 |
| M44 | Oxford · Away21 Apr 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.76 | +11.56 |
| M45 | Coventry · Away26 Apr 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.02 | +10.54 |
| M46 | Middlesbrough · Home2 May 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.18 | +10.35 |
| Total | 71 | +10.35 | |||