Points
20Points expected by the market
17.15Gap
+2.85Yield
−1.6%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.87 | +47.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 3 | 7 | +1.82 | +37.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 7 | 10 | +1.16 | −11.1% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 0 | −1.00 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.87 | +47.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 2 | 4 | +0.39 | −3.5% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 3 | 3 | −0.87 | −100.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 1 | 3 | +1.43 | +119.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 4 | 7 | +2.04 | +55.5% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 0 | −1.00 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Sheffield United · Away15 Aug 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.15 |
| M2 | Bristol City · Home22 Aug 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.90 | −1.05 |
| M3 | Wrexham · Away28 Aug 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.88 | +0.84 |
| M4 | Southampton · Home1 Sep 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.33 | +0.50 |
| M5 | Wolverhampton · Home6 Sep 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.27 | +0.24 |
| M6 | Norwich · Away9 Sep 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.00 | −0.77 |
| M7 | Derby · Away12 Sep 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.43 | +0.67 |
| M8 | Middlesbrough · Home19 Sep 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.27 | +0.40 |
| M9 | West Bromwich Albion · Away10 Oct 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.70 | +2.10 |
| M10 | Preston · Home13 Oct 2026 | W 4-0 | 3 | +0.87 | +2.97 |
| M11 | Queens Park Rangers · Home17 Oct 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.28 | +4.25 |
| M12 | Cardiff · Away24 Oct 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.40 | +2.85 |
| Total | 20 | +2.85 | |||