Points
18Points expected by the market
13.95Gap
+4.05Yield
+25.8%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 9 | 14 | +2.69 | +26.7% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 3 | 4 | +1.35 | +23.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 5 | 9 | +2.46 | +62.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 3 | +1.97 | +269.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 4 | 5 | +0.23 | −18.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 2 | 1 | −0.62 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Wolverhampton · Away14 Aug 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.35 |
| M2 | Middlesbrough · Home22 Aug 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.97 | +2.32 |
| M3 | Queens Park Rangers · Home29 Aug 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.28 | +1.03 |
| M4 | Lincoln · Away1 Sep 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.79 |
| M5 | Preston · Away5 Sep 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.22 | −0.43 |
| M6 | Sheffield United · Home8 Sep 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.27 | −1.70 |
| M7 | Millwall · Home12 Sep 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.57 | −0.12 |
| M8 | Portsmouth · Away19 Sep 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.28 |
| M9 | Cardiff · Home10 Oct 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.67 | +1.39 |
| M10 | Bristol City · Away13 Oct 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.85 | +3.24 |
| M11 | West Bromwich Albion · Away17 Oct 2026 | L 2-3 | 0 | −0.97 | +2.27 |
| M12 | Wrexham · Home24 Oct 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.77 | +4.05 |
| Total | 18 | +4.05 | |||