Points
25Points expected by the market
21.78Gap
+3.22Yield
+6.5%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 3 | 5 | −1.42 | −50.3% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 7 | 16 | +3.61 | +28.7% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 2 | 4 | +1.04 | +14.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 3 | 5 | −1.42 | −50.3% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 3 | 9 | +3.71 | +87.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 4 | 7 | −0.11 | −15.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 2 | 4 | +1.04 | +14.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Lincoln · Home15 Aug 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.88 | +0.88 |
| M2 | Blackburn · Away22 Aug 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.71 | −0.82 |
| M3 | West Bromwich Albion · Home29 Aug 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.11 | +0.29 |
| M4 | Burnley · Away2 Sep 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.58 | −0.29 |
| M5 | Queens Park Rangers · Away5 Sep 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.50 | +1.21 |
| M6 | Norwich · Home12 Sep 2026 | W 4-3 | 3 | +1.23 | +2.44 |
| M7 | Millwall · Home15 Sep 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −1.21 | +1.23 |
| M8 | Birmingham · Away19 Sep 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.47 | +0.76 |
| M9 | Wolverhampton · Home10 Oct 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.37 | +2.14 |
| M10 | Stoke · Away13 Oct 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.26 | +3.40 |
| M11 | Cardiff · Home17 Oct 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −1.10 | +2.30 |
| M12 | Bolton · Away23 Oct 2026 | W 5-1 | 3 | +0.92 | +3.22 |
| Total | 25 | +3.22 | |||