Points
16Points expected by the market
17.26Gap
−1.26Yield
−18.0%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 4 | 8 | +1.03 | −6.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 7 | 5 | −4.25 | −65.9% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 3 | +1.97 | +269.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 4 | 8 | +1.03 | −6.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 2 | 0 | −2.50 | −100.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 5 | 5 | −1.75 | −52.2% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 3 | +1.97 | +269.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Birmingham · Home15 Aug 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.57 | −0.57 |
| M2 | Swansea · Away22 Aug 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.94 |
| M3 | Cardiff · Away29 Aug 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.46 | −1.40 |
| M4 | Bolton · Home1 Sep 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.06 | −0.34 |
| M5 | Norwich · Home5 Sep 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.37 | −1.71 |
| M6 | Blackburn · Away8 Sep 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.54 | −0.17 |
| M7 | Wolverhampton · Home13 Sep 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.13 | −1.30 |
| M8 | Stoke · Away19 Sep 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.18 | −2.48 |
| M9 | Lincoln · Home10 Oct 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.38 | −1.10 |
| M10 | Portsmouth · Away14 Oct 2026 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.28 | −2.38 |
| M11 | Bristol City · Away17 Oct 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.97 | −0.41 |
| M12 | Derby · Home24 Oct 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.84 | −1.26 |
| Total | 16 | −1.26 | |||