Points
24Points expected by the market
20.07Gap
+3.93Yield
+31.8%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 1 | −1.17 | −100.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 7 | 16 | +3.01 | +22.4% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 3 | 4 | −0.04 | −5.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 3 | +2.14 | +341.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 1 | −1.17 | −100.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 5 | 15 | +5.54 | +71.4% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 2 | 1 | −2.53 | −100.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 3 | 4 | −0.04 | −5.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 3 | +2.14 | +341.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Watford · Away16 Aug 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.70 | −1.70 |
| M2 | Stoke · Home22 Aug 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.03 | −0.67 |
| M3 | Millwall · Home29 Aug 2026 | W 5-1 | 3 | +1.31 | +0.64 |
| M4 | Birmingham · Away1 Sep 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.40 | +0.24 |
| M5 | Lincoln · Away5 Sep 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.83 | −0.59 |
| M6 | Swansea · Home8 Sep 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.21 | +0.62 |
| M7 | Bristol City · Home12 Sep 2026 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.08 | +1.70 |
| M8 | Wrexham · Away19 Sep 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.40 | +0.30 |
| M9 | Portsmouth · Home11 Oct 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.91 | +1.21 |
| M10 | Norwich · Away14 Oct 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.75 | +2.97 |
| M11 | Bolton · Home17 Oct 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −1.17 | +1.79 |
| M12 | West Ham · Away24 Oct 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +2.14 | +3.93 |
| Total | 24 | +3.93 | |||