Points
86Points expected by the market
71.72Gap
+14.28Yield
+25.7%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 2 | 6 | +1.54 | +40.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 23 | 43 | +1.96 | +2.1% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 17 | 33 | +10.16 | +55.2% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 4 | 4 | +0.62 | +29.5% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 2 | 6 | +1.54 | +40.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 16 | 34 | +5.47 | +23.1% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 4 | 9 | +3.78 | +108.5% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 0 | −1.00 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 7 | 9 | −3.51 | −45.9% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 13 | 24 | +6.39 | +38.8% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 3 | 4 | +1.62 | +72.7% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Plymouth · Away30 Jul 2022 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.12 | −1.12 |
| M2 | Cheltenham · Home6 Aug 2022 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.19 | +0.08 |
| M3 | Derby · Away13 Aug 2022 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.94 | −0.87 |
| M4 | Bristol Rovers · Home16 Aug 2022 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.39 | +0.53 |
| M5 | Wycombe · Home20 Aug 2022 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.60 | −1.07 |
| M6 | Ipswich · Away27 Aug 2022 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.35 | −0.72 |
| M7 | Sheffield Wednesday · Away3 Sep 2022 | W 2-0 | 3 | +2.21 | +1.49 |
| M8 | Port Vale · Home13 Sep 2022 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.60 | +0.89 |
| M9 | Cambridge · Away17 Sep 2022 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.57 | +2.46 |
| M10 | Charlton · Home24 Sep 2022 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.56 | +4.03 |
| M11 | Fleetwood Town · Away1 Oct 2022 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.49 | +5.52 |
| M12 | Exeter · Home8 Oct 2022 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.59 | +3.93 |
| M13 | Bolton · Away15 Oct 2022 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.13 | +3.80 |
| M14 | Morecambe · Away22 Oct 2022 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.86 | +1.94 |
| M15 | Lincoln · Home25 Oct 2022 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.78 | +0.17 |
| M16 | Forest Green · Home29 Oct 2022 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.91 | +1.08 |
| M17 | Shrewsbury · Away12 Nov 2022 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.57 | +2.65 |
| M18 | Milton Keynes Dons · Home19 Nov 2022 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.22 | +3.87 |
| M19 | Peterborough · Away2 Dec 2022 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.81 | +5.67 |
| M20 | Burton · Home17 Dec 2022 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.12 | +6.79 |
| M21 | Accrington · Away26 Dec 2022 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.64 | +6.16 |
| M22 | Fleetwood Town · Home29 Dec 2022 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.03 | +7.19 |
| M23 | Bolton · Home2 Jan 2023 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.59 | +5.59 |
| M24 | Charlton · Away14 Jan 2023 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.27 | +4.32 |
| M25 | Accrington · Home21 Jan 2023 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.94 | +5.26 |
| M26 | Oxford · Away1 Feb 2023 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.67 | +6.94 |
| M27 | Portsmouth · Away4 Feb 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.30 | +6.64 |
| M28 | Cambridge · Home11 Feb 2023 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.93 | +7.57 |
| M29 | Port Vale · Away14 Feb 2023 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.53 | +9.10 |
| M30 | Cheltenham · Away18 Feb 2023 | W 4-0 | 3 | +1.40 | +10.50 |
| M31 | Derby · Home25 Feb 2023 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.77 | +12.27 |
| M32 | Bristol Rovers · Away4 Mar 2023 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.73 | +11.53 |
| M33 | Portsmouth · Home7 Mar 2023 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.27 | +12.80 |
| M34 | Plymouth · Home11 Mar 2023 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.35 | +14.15 |
| M35 | Wycombe · Away18 Mar 2023 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.60 | +15.76 |
| M36 | Sheffield Wednesday · Home21 Mar 2023 | W 4-2 | 3 | +1.72 | +17.47 |
| M37 | Exeter · Away28 Mar 2023 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.57 | +15.90 |
| M38 | Morecambe · Home1 Apr 2023 | W 5-0 | 3 | +0.75 | +16.65 |
| M39 | Burton · Away7 Apr 2023 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.81 | +14.84 |
| M40 | Shrewsbury · Home10 Apr 2023 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.79 | +15.62 |
| M41 | Forest Green · Away15 Apr 2023 | W 5-1 | 3 | +1.03 | +16.65 |
| M42 | Lincoln · Away18 Apr 2023 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.89 | +15.76 |
| M43 | Oxford · Home22 Apr 2023 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.26 | +17.03 |
| M44 | Ipswich · Home25 Apr 2023 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.00 | +16.03 |
| M45 | Milton Keynes Dons · Away29 Apr 2023 | D 4-4 | 1 | −0.48 | +15.55 |
| M46 | Peterborough · Home7 May 2023 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.27 | +14.28 |
| Total | 86 | +14.28 | |||