Points
56Points expected by the market
52.63Gap
+3.37Yield
+7.3%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 6 | 8 | −2.22 | −35.7% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 20 | 30 | +4.38 | +14.2% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 20 | 18 | +1.20 | +13.3% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 5 | 8 | −0.66 | −22.8% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 13 | 19 | +1.96 | +7.1% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 5 | 7 | +2.49 | +99.6% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 1 | 0 | −1.56 | −100.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 7 | 11 | +2.42 | +27.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 15 | 11 | −1.29 | −15.5% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Wycombe · Away30 Jul 2022 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.87 | −0.87 |
| M2 | Bristol Rovers · Home6 Aug 2022 | L 0-4 | 0 | −1.57 | −2.44 |
| M3 | Accrington · Away13 Aug 2022 | D 4-4 | 1 | +0.04 | −2.40 |
| M4 | Ipswich · Home16 Aug 2022 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.81 | −3.21 |
| M5 | Port Vale · Home20 Aug 2022 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.32 | −4.53 |
| M6 | Cambridge · Away27 Aug 2022 | L 3-4 | 0 | −1.19 | −5.72 |
| M7 | Oxford · Away3 Sep 2022 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.92 | −6.64 |
| M8 | Portsmouth · Home13 Sep 2022 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.03 | −7.67 |
| M9 | Exeter · Away17 Sep 2022 | W 2-0 | 3 | +2.17 | −5.50 |
| M10 | Shrewsbury · Away24 Sep 2022 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.20 | −6.71 |
| M11 | Forest Green · Home1 Oct 2022 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.15 | −5.56 |
| M12 | Fleetwood Town · Home4 Oct 2022 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.55 | −7.10 |
| M13 | Peterborough · Away8 Oct 2022 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.20 | −6.90 |
| M14 | Morecambe · Home15 Oct 2022 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.83 | −7.74 |
| M15 | Cheltenham · Home22 Oct 2022 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.37 | −6.37 |
| M16 | Bolton · Away25 Oct 2022 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.88 | −7.25 |
| M17 | Sheffield Wednesday · Away29 Oct 2022 | L 2-4 | 0 | −0.65 | −7.90 |
| M18 | Charlton · Home12 Nov 2022 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.30 | −8.20 |
| M19 | Plymouth · Home19 Nov 2022 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.37 | −8.57 |
| M20 | Milton Keynes Dons · Away3 Dec 2022 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.24 | −8.81 |
| M21 | Derby · Home10 Dec 2022 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.01 | −8.83 |
| M22 | Barnsley · Away17 Dec 2022 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.87 | −9.70 |
| M23 | Lincoln · Home26 Dec 2022 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.49 | −8.20 |
| M24 | Forest Green · Away29 Dec 2022 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.58 | −6.62 |
| M25 | Morecambe · Away1 Jan 2023 | L 0-5 | 0 | −1.56 | −8.18 |
| M26 | Shrewsbury · Home14 Jan 2023 | L 0-4 | 0 | −1.45 | −9.64 |
| M27 | Oxford · Home28 Jan 2023 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.84 | −7.80 |
| M28 | Fleetwood Town · Away4 Feb 2023 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.91 | −5.89 |
| M29 | Exeter · Home11 Feb 2023 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.57 | −4.32 |
| M30 | Portsmouth · Away14 Feb 2023 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.99 | −5.31 |
| M31 | Bristol Rovers · Away18 Feb 2023 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.81 | −3.50 |
| M32 | Accrington · Home25 Feb 2023 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.77 | −4.27 |
| M33 | Ipswich · Away4 Mar 2023 | L 0-4 | 0 | −0.47 | −4.74 |
| M34 | Wycombe · Home11 Mar 2023 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.65 | −3.09 |
| M35 | Peterborough · Home14 Mar 2023 | L 2-5 | 0 | −1.17 | −4.26 |
| M36 | Port Vale · Away18 Mar 2023 | W 3-2 | 3 | +2.07 | −2.19 |
| M37 | Cheltenham · Away1 Apr 2023 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.21 | −2.40 |
| M38 | Barnsley · Home7 Apr 2023 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.07 | −0.33 |
| M39 | Charlton · Away10 Apr 2023 | L 2-3 | 0 | −0.99 | −1.32 |
| M40 | Sheffield Wednesday · Home15 Apr 2023 | W 3-2 | 3 | +2.27 | +0.96 |
| M41 | Bolton · Home18 Apr 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.83 |
| M42 | Derby · Away22 Apr 2023 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.51 | +0.32 |
| M43 | Lincoln · Away25 Apr 2023 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.88 | +2.20 |
| M44 | Plymouth · Away29 Apr 2023 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.53 | +1.67 |
| M45 | Cambridge · Home3 May 2023 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.89 | +3.56 |
| M46 | Milton Keynes Dons · Home7 May 2023 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.19 | +3.37 |
| Total | 56 | +3.37 | |||