← League One 2022-23

Derby

Season 2022-23 · 46 matches played

Last 5DWWDL

Points

Points expected by the market

80.17

Gap

−4.17

Yield

−18.3%

Market film

Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below

The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.

Performance by odds

Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.

Odds band	Matches playedMP	PointsPts	Expected	Gap	Yield
Heavy favourite under 1.50	9	20	20.04	−0.04	−8.6%
Favourite 1.50 – 2.19	24	46	42.91	+3.09	+3.3%
Even 2.20 – 3.49	12	10	16.36	−6.36	−61.8%
Underdog 3.50 or more few matches	1	0	0.86	−0.86	−100.0%
Heavy favourite under 1.50	9	20	20.04	−0.04	−8.6%
Favourite 1.50 – 2.19	12	24	21.58	+2.42	+11.4%
Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches	2	1	2.36	−1.36	−100.0%
Underdog 3.50 or more	0	—	—	—	—
Heavy favourite under 1.50	0	—	—	—	—
Favourite 1.50 – 2.19	12	22	21.33	+0.67	−4.9%
Even 2.20 – 3.49	10	9	14.00	−5.00	−54.2%
Underdog 3.50 or more few matches	1	0	0.86	−0.86	−100.0%

With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.

Match by match

M	Opponent	Date	ResultRes.	Odds to win	Expected	PointsPts	Gap	Running total	€1 bet
M1	Oxford · Home30 Jul 2022	30 Jul 2022	W 1-0	2.07	1.64	3	+1.36	+1.36	+€1.07
M2	Charlton · Away6 Aug 2022	6 Aug 2022	L 0-1	2.49	1.43	0	−1.43	−0.07	−€1.00
M3	Barnsley · Home13 Aug 2022	13 Aug 2022	W 2-1	1.87	1.78	3	+1.22	+1.14	+€0.87
M4	Shrewsbury · Away16 Aug 2022	16 Aug 2022	D 0-0	2.42	1.47	1	−0.47	+0.67	−€1.00
M5	Fleetwood Town · Away20 Aug 2022	20 Aug 2022	D 0-0	1.83	1.81	1	−0.81	−0.14	−€1.00
M6	Peterborough · Home27 Aug 2022	27 Aug 2022	W 2-1	2.08	1.63	3	+1.37	+1.23	+€1.08
M7	Plymouth · Home3 Sep 2022	3 Sep 2022	L 2-3	1.78	1.85	0	−1.85	−0.62	−€1.00
M8	Lincoln · Away13 Sep 2022	13 Sep 2022	L 0-2	2.03	1.67	0	−1.67	−2.29	−€1.00
M9	Wycombe · Home17 Sep 2022	17 Sep 2022	W 2-1	2.04	1.66	3	+1.34	−0.95	+€1.04
M10	Cambridge · Away1 Oct 2022	1 Oct 2022	W 2-0	1.98	1.70	3	+1.30	+0.35	+€0.98
M11	Port Vale · Home8 Oct 2022	8 Oct 2022	L 1-2	1.94	1.73	0	−1.73	−1.38	−€1.00
M12	Accrington · Away15 Oct 2022	15 Oct 2022	W 3-0	2.17	1.57	3	+1.43	+0.04	+€1.17
M13	Ipswich · Away21 Oct 2022	21 Oct 2022	L 0-1	4.67	0.86	0	−0.86	−0.81	−€1.00
M14	Exeter · Home25 Oct 2022	25 Oct 2022	D 0-0	2.17	1.58	1	−0.58	−1.39	−€1.00
M15	Bristol Rovers · Home29 Oct 2022	29 Oct 2022	W 4-2	1.74	1.87	3	+1.13	−0.26	+€0.74
M16	Morecambe · Away1 Nov 2022	1 Nov 2022	D 1-1	1.61	1.99	1	−0.99	−1.25	−€1.00
M17	Milton Keynes Dons · Away12 Nov 2022	12 Nov 2022	W 3-1	2.28	1.53	3	+1.47	+0.23	+€1.28
M18	Portsmouth · Away18 Nov 2022	18 Nov 2022	D 0-0	3.28	1.14	1	−0.14	+0.09	−€1.00
M19	Sheffield Wednesday · Home3 Dec 2022	3 Dec 2022	D 0-0	2.94	1.23	1	−0.23	−0.14	−€1.00
M20	Burton · Away10 Dec 2022	10 Dec 2022	D 1-1	1.95	1.72	1	−0.72	−0.86	−€1.00
M21	Forest Green · Home17 Dec 2022	17 Dec 2022	W 4-0	1.41	2.20	3	+0.80	−0.06	+€0.41
M22	Bolton · Away27 Dec 2022	27 Dec 2022	D 0-0	2.73	1.32	1	−0.32	−0.38	−€1.00
M23	Cambridge · Home30 Dec 2022	30 Dec 2022	W 1-0	1.33	2.31	3	+0.69	+0.31	+€0.33
M24	Accrington · Home2 Jan 2023	2 Jan 2023	W 4-0	1.46	2.15	3	+0.85	+1.16	+€0.46
M25	Cheltenham · Away14 Jan 2023	14 Jan 2023	W 3-2	1.74	1.89	3	+1.11	+2.27	+€0.74
M26	Bolton · Home21 Jan 2023	21 Jan 2023	W 2-1	2.02	1.68	3	+1.32	+3.60	+€1.02
M27	Port Vale · Away24 Jan 2023	24 Jan 2023	W 2-1	1.99	1.72	3	+1.28	+4.88	+€0.99
M28	Morecambe · Home4 Feb 2023	4 Feb 2023	W 5-0	1.32	2.32	3	+0.68	+5.56	+€0.32
M29	Wycombe · Away11 Feb 2023	11 Feb 2023	L 2-3	2.01	1.68	0	−1.68	+3.88	−€1.00
M30	Lincoln · Home14 Feb 2023	14 Feb 2023	D 1-1	1.44	2.17	1	−1.17	+2.70	−€1.00
M31	Charlton · Home18 Feb 2023	18 Feb 2023	W 2-0	1.55	2.05	3	+0.95	+3.65	+€0.55
M32	Barnsley · Away25 Feb 2023	25 Feb 2023	L 1-4	2.39	1.47	0	−1.47	+2.18	−€1.00
M33	Cheltenham · Home28 Feb 2023	28 Feb 2023	W 2-0	1.37	2.26	3	+0.74	+2.92	+€0.37
M34	Shrewsbury · Home4 Mar 2023	4 Mar 2023	D 2-2	1.57	2.04	1	−1.04	+1.88	−€1.00
M35	Plymouth · Away7 Mar 2023	7 Mar 2023	L 1-2	2.48	1.41	0	−1.41	+0.47	−€1.00
M36	Oxford · Away11 Mar 2023	11 Mar 2023	W 3-2	2.30	1.51	3	+1.49	+1.96	+€1.30
M37	Fleetwood Town · Home18 Mar 2023	18 Mar 2023	L 0-2	1.43	2.19	0	−2.19	−0.23	−€1.00
M38	Peterborough · Away25 Mar 2023	25 Mar 2023	L 0-2	2.68	1.34	0	−1.34	−1.58	−€1.00
M39	Ipswich · Home1 Apr 2023	1 Apr 2023	L 0-2	3.40	1.13	0	−1.13	−2.70	−€1.00
M40	Forest Green · Away7 Apr 2023	7 Apr 2023	W 2-0	1.62	2.00	3	+1.00	−1.70	+€0.62
M41	Milton Keynes Dons · Home10 Apr 2023	10 Apr 2023	D 1-1	1.54	2.07	1	−1.07	−2.77	−€1.00
M42	Bristol Rovers · Away15 Apr 2023	15 Apr 2023	D 1-1	1.80	1.83	1	−0.83	−3.60	−€1.00
M43	Exeter · Away18 Apr 2023	18 Apr 2023	W 2-1	1.91	1.76	3	+1.24	−2.35	+€0.91
M44	Burton · Home22 Apr 2023	22 Apr 2023	W 1-0	1.34	2.30	3	+0.70	−1.65	+€0.34
M45	Portsmouth · Home29 Apr 2023	29 Apr 2023	D 1-1	1.48	2.14	1	−1.14	−2.79	−€1.00
M46	Sheffield Wednesday · Away7 May 2023	7 May 2023	L 0-1	2.57	1.38	0	−1.38	−4.17	−€1.00
Total					80.17	76	−4.17		−€8.41