← League One 2022-23

Forest Green

Season 2022-23 · 46 matches played

Last 5LDLLL

Points

Points expected by the market

45.93

Gap

−18.93

Yield

−51.5%

Market film

Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below

The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.

Performance by odds

Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.

Odds band	Matches playedMP	PointsPts	Expected	Gap	Yield
Heavy favourite under 1.50	0	—	—	—	—
Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches	1	0	1.78	−1.78	−100.0%
Even 2.20 – 3.49	17	16	22.16	−6.16	−39.9%
Underdog 3.50 or more	28	11	21.99	−10.99	−56.8%
Heavy favourite under 1.50	0	—	—	—	—
Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches	1	0	1.78	−1.78	−100.0%
Even 2.20 – 3.49	13	11	17.15	−6.15	−43.9%
Underdog 3.50 or more	9	6	7.74	−1.74	+34.4%
Heavy favourite under 1.50	0	—	—	—	—
Favourite 1.50 – 2.19	0	—	—	—	—
Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches	4	5	5.01	−0.01	−26.7%
Underdog 3.50 or more	19	5	14.25	−9.25	−100.0%

With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.

Match by match

M	Opponent	Date	ResultRes.	Odds to win	Expected	PointsPts	Gap	Running total	€1 bet
M1	Bristol Rovers · Away30 Jul 2022	30 Jul 2022	W 2-1	2.93	1.25	3	+1.75	+1.75	+€1.93
M2	Ipswich · Home6 Aug 2022	6 Aug 2022	L 1-2	3.76	1.03	0	−1.03	+0.71	−€1.00
M3	Lincoln · Away13 Aug 2022	13 Aug 2022	D 1-1	3.15	1.18	1	−0.18	+0.54	−€1.00
M4	Plymouth · Home20 Aug 2022	20 Aug 2022	L 0-3	2.41	1.45	0	−1.45	−0.91	−€1.00
M5	Sheffield Wednesday · Away27 Aug 2022	27 Aug 2022	L 0-5	7.05	0.62	0	−0.62	−1.54	−€1.00
M6	Shrewsbury · Home3 Sep 2022	3 Sep 2022	L 0-2	2.74	1.34	0	−1.34	−2.88	−€1.00
M7	Accrington · Home6 Sep 2022	6 Sep 2022	W 2-1	2.42	1.45	3	+1.55	−1.33	+€1.42
M8	Charlton · Away13 Sep 2022	13 Sep 2022	D 1-1	4.56	0.87	1	+0.13	−1.19	−€1.00
M9	Morecambe · Home17 Sep 2022	17 Sep 2022	L 1-2	1.87	1.78	0	−1.78	−2.97	−€1.00
M10	Exeter · Home24 Sep 2022	24 Sep 2022	L 0-4	3.47	1.09	0	−1.09	−4.06	−€1.00
M11	Burton · Away1 Oct 2022	1 Oct 2022	L 2-3	4.36	0.90	0	−0.90	−4.96	−€1.00
M12	Bolton · Home8 Oct 2022	8 Oct 2022	W 1-0	4.14	0.94	3	+2.06	−2.90	+€3.14
M13	Peterborough · Away11 Oct 2022	11 Oct 2022	L 1-4	6.54	0.64	0	−0.64	−3.54	−€1.00
M14	Port Vale · Away15 Oct 2022	15 Oct 2022	D 2-2	4.07	0.97	1	+0.03	−3.51	−€1.00
M15	Portsmouth · Home22 Oct 2022	22 Oct 2022	L 0-1	4.23	0.93	0	−0.93	−4.44	−€1.00
M16	Fleetwood Town · Away25 Oct 2022	25 Oct 2022	D 1-1	3.70	1.04	1	−0.04	−4.48	−€1.00
M17	Barnsley · Away29 Oct 2022	29 Oct 2022	L 0-2	6.03	0.69	0	−0.69	−5.17	−€1.00
M18	Wycombe · Home12 Nov 2022	12 Nov 2022	L 0-2	3.74	1.01	0	−1.01	−6.17	−€1.00
M19	Oxford · Away19 Nov 2022	19 Nov 2022	D 1-1	6.21	0.66	1	+0.34	−5.83	−€1.00
M20	Cambridge · Home3 Dec 2022	3 Dec 2022	W 2-1	2.38	1.46	3	+1.54	−4.29	+€1.38
M21	Cheltenham · Home10 Dec 2022	10 Dec 2022	W 1-0	2.49	1.42	3	+1.58	−2.72	+€1.49
M22	Derby · Away17 Dec 2022	17 Dec 2022	L 0-4	7.26	0.59	0	−0.59	−3.31	−€1.00
M23	Milton Keynes Dons · Away26 Dec 2022	26 Dec 2022	L 0-1	4.23	0.93	0	−0.93	−4.24	−€1.00
M24	Burton · Home29 Dec 2022	29 Dec 2022	L 1-2	2.75	1.30	0	−1.30	−5.55	−€1.00
M25	Port Vale · Home1 Jan 2023	1 Jan 2023	L 1-3	3.01	1.25	0	−1.25	−6.79	−€1.00
M26	Exeter · Away14 Jan 2023	14 Jan 2023	D 1-1	4.87	0.82	1	+0.18	−6.61	−€1.00
M27	Milton Keynes Dons · Home21 Jan 2023	21 Jan 2023	L 1-2	2.65	1.35	0	−1.35	−7.96	−€1.00
M28	Bolton · Away24 Jan 2023	24 Jan 2023	L 0-1	7.45	0.60	0	−0.60	−8.56	−€1.00
M29	Shrewsbury · Away28 Jan 2023	28 Jan 2023	L 1-2	3.59	1.08	0	−1.08	−9.64	−€1.00
M30	Peterborough · Home4 Feb 2023	4 Feb 2023	L 0-2	3.94	0.98	0	−0.98	−10.62	−€1.00
M31	Morecambe · Away11 Feb 2023	11 Feb 2023	D 1-1	2.69	1.35	1	−0.35	−10.96	−€1.00
M32	Charlton · Home14 Feb 2023	14 Feb 2023	L 0-1	2.99	1.23	0	−1.23	−12.20	−€1.00
M33	Ipswich · Away18 Feb 2023	18 Feb 2023	L 0-4	9.79	0.48	0	−0.48	−12.67	−€1.00
M34	Lincoln · Home25 Feb 2023	25 Feb 2023	D 1-1	2.75	1.33	1	−0.33	−13.00	−€1.00
M35	Accrington · Away4 Mar 2023	4 Mar 2023	L 1-2	3.02	1.24	0	−1.24	−14.23	−€1.00
M36	Bristol Rovers · Home11 Mar 2023	11 Mar 2023	L 1-3	2.75	1.31	0	−1.31	−15.55	−€1.00
M37	Plymouth · Away18 Mar 2023	18 Mar 2023	L 0-2	8.06	0.54	0	−0.54	−16.09	−€1.00
M38	Sheffield Wednesday · Home26 Mar 2023	26 Mar 2023	W 1-0	7.96	0.58	3	+2.42	−13.67	+€6.96
M39	Portsmouth · Away1 Apr 2023	1 Apr 2023	L 0-1	6.06	0.71	0	−0.71	−14.37	−€1.00
M40	Derby · Home7 Apr 2023	7 Apr 2023	L 0-2	5.61	0.75	0	−0.75	−15.13	−€1.00
M41	Wycombe · Away10 Apr 2023	10 Apr 2023	L 0-2	6.19	0.69	0	−0.69	−15.82	−€1.00
M42	Barnsley · Home15 Apr 2023	15 Apr 2023	L 1-5	5.63	0.76	0	−0.76	−16.58	−€1.00
M43	Fleetwood Town · Home18 Apr 2023	18 Apr 2023	D 0-0	3.23	1.17	1	−0.17	−16.75	−€1.00
M44	Cheltenham · Away22 Apr 2023	22 Apr 2023	L 1-3	4.54	0.91	0	−0.91	−17.66	−€1.00
M45	Oxford · Home29 Apr 2023	29 Apr 2023	L 0-3	5.59	0.75	0	−0.75	−18.41	−€1.00
M46	Cambridge · Away7 May 2023	7 May 2023	L 0-2	8.75	0.52	0	−0.52	−18.93	−€1.00
Total					45.93	27	−18.93		−€23.68