← League One 2022-23

Oxford

Season 2022-23 · 46 matches played

Last 5DLWWL

Points

Points expected by the market

68.58

Gap

−21.58

Yield

−43.3%

Market film

Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below

The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.

Performance by odds

Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.

Odds band	Matches playedMP	PointsPts	Expected	Gap	Yield
Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches	2	1	4.35	−3.35	−100.0%
Favourite 1.50 – 2.19	17	23	30.09	−7.09	−38.4%
Even 2.20 – 3.49	20	15	27.54	−12.54	−63.4%
Underdog 3.50 or more	7	8	6.60	+1.40	+18.6%
Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches	2	1	4.35	−3.35	−100.0%
Favourite 1.50 – 2.19	12	15	21.56	−6.56	−42.8%
Even 2.20 – 3.49	8	4	11.36	−7.36	−71.8%
Underdog 3.50 or more few matches	1	3	0.89	+2.11	+346.0%
Heavy favourite under 1.50	0	—	—	—	—
Favourite 1.50 – 2.19	5	8	8.53	−0.53	−27.6%
Even 2.20 – 3.49	12	11	16.18	−5.18	−57.8%
Underdog 3.50 or more	6	5	5.71	−0.71	−36.0%

With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.

Match by match

M	Opponent	Date	ResultRes.	Odds to win	Expected	PointsPts	Gap	Running total	€1 bet
M1	Derby · Away30 Jul 2022	30 Jul 2022	L 0-1	3.50	1.08	0	−1.08	−1.08	−€1.00
M2	Cambridge · Home6 Aug 2022	6 Aug 2022	W 1-0	1.72	1.89	3	+1.11	+0.02	+€0.72
M3	Bristol Rovers · Away13 Aug 2022	13 Aug 2022	L 0-1	2.22	1.54	0	−1.54	−1.52	−€1.00
M4	Lincoln · Home16 Aug 2022	16 Aug 2022	L 1-2	1.87	1.77	0	−1.77	−3.29	−€1.00
M5	Morecambe · Home20 Aug 2022	20 Aug 2022	D 1-1	1.56	2.04	1	−1.04	−4.33	−€1.00
M6	Cheltenham · Away27 Aug 2022	27 Aug 2022	W 2-1	2.01	1.67	3	+1.33	−3.00	+€1.01
M7	Burton · Home3 Sep 2022	3 Sep 2022	W 2-1	1.79	1.83	3	+1.17	−1.83	+€0.79
M8	Plymouth · Away13 Sep 2022	13 Sep 2022	L 0-1	3.27	1.13	0	−1.13	−2.96	−€1.00
M9	Milton Keynes Dons · Home17 Sep 2022	17 Sep 2022	L 1-2	2.00	1.69	0	−1.69	−4.66	−€1.00
M10	Charlton · Away1 Oct 2022	1 Oct 2022	D 1-1	2.95	1.23	1	−0.23	−4.88	−€1.00
M11	Wycombe · Home8 Oct 2022	8 Oct 2022	L 0-1	2.20	1.56	0	−1.56	−6.44	−€1.00
M12	Exeter · Away15 Oct 2022	15 Oct 2022	W 4-2	2.74	1.31	3	+1.69	−4.75	+€1.74
M13	Peterborough · Home22 Oct 2022	22 Oct 2022	L 1-2	2.24	1.52	0	−1.52	−6.27	−€1.00
M14	Portsmouth · Away25 Oct 2022	25 Oct 2022	D 1-1	3.27	1.14	1	−0.14	−6.41	−€1.00
M15	Bolton · Away29 Oct 2022	29 Oct 2022	W 3-1	3.84	1.00	3	+2.00	−4.42	+€2.84
M16	Fleetwood Town · Home1 Nov 2022	1 Nov 2022	D 1-1	1.90	1.75	1	−0.75	−5.17	−€1.00
M17	Shrewsbury · Away9 Nov 2022	9 Nov 2022	D 1-1	2.33	1.50	1	−0.50	−5.66	−€1.00
M18	Port Vale · Home12 Nov 2022	12 Nov 2022	W 4-0	2.26	1.54	3	+1.46	−4.20	+€1.26
M19	Forest Green · Home19 Nov 2022	19 Nov 2022	D 1-1	1.45	2.14	1	−1.14	−5.34	−€1.00
M20	Accrington · Away3 Dec 2022	3 Dec 2022	D 1-1	2.12	1.59	1	−0.59	−5.93	−€1.00
M21	Sheffield Wednesday · Away17 Dec 2022	17 Dec 2022	D 0-0	4.11	0.94	1	+0.06	−5.88	−€1.00
M22	Ipswich · Away26 Dec 2022	26 Dec 2022	L 0-3	5.57	0.74	0	−0.74	−6.61	−€1.00
M23	Charlton · Home29 Dec 2022	29 Dec 2022	W 3-1	1.80	1.82	3	+1.18	−5.43	+€0.80
M24	Exeter · Home1 Jan 2023	1 Jan 2023	L 0-1	2.20	1.55	0	−1.55	−6.98	−€1.00
M25	Fleetwood Town · Away14 Jan 2023	14 Jan 2023	W 2-1	2.32	1.49	3	+1.51	−5.48	+€1.32
M26	Ipswich · Home21 Jan 2023	21 Jan 2023	W 2-1	4.46	0.89	3	+2.11	−3.36	+€3.46
M27	Wycombe · Away24 Jan 2023	24 Jan 2023	L 0-2	3.00	1.23	0	−1.23	−4.59	−€1.00
M28	Burton · Away28 Jan 2023	28 Jan 2023	L 0-2	2.17	1.57	0	−1.57	−6.16	−€1.00
M29	Barnsley · Home1 Feb 2023	1 Feb 2023	L 1-2	2.56	1.39	0	−1.39	−7.55	−€1.00
M30	Shrewsbury · Home4 Feb 2023	4 Feb 2023	L 0-1	2.06	1.65	0	−1.65	−9.20	−€1.00
M31	Milton Keynes Dons · Away11 Feb 2023	11 Feb 2023	D 1-1	2.71	1.33	1	−0.33	−9.53	−€1.00
M32	Plymouth · Home14 Feb 2023	14 Feb 2023	L 1-3	2.15	1.58	0	−1.58	−11.12	−€1.00
M33	Cambridge · Away18 Feb 2023	18 Feb 2023	L 0-1	2.22	1.55	0	−1.55	−12.67	−€1.00
M34	Bristol Rovers · Home25 Feb 2023	25 Feb 2023	L 0-3	1.80	1.82	0	−1.82	−14.49	−€1.00
M35	Lincoln · Away4 Mar 2023	4 Mar 2023	L 0-1	2.76	1.32	0	−1.32	−15.81	−€1.00
M36	Derby · Home11 Mar 2023	11 Mar 2023	L 2-3	3.07	1.20	0	−1.20	−17.01	−€1.00
M37	Morecambe · Away18 Mar 2023	18 Mar 2023	D 1-1	1.97	1.70	1	−0.70	−17.71	−€1.00
M38	Peterborough · Away1 Apr 2023	1 Apr 2023	D 0-0	4.11	0.95	1	+0.05	−17.66	−€1.00
M39	Sheffield Wednesday · Home7 Apr 2023	7 Apr 2023	D 1-1	3.47	1.10	1	−0.10	−17.77	−€1.00
M40	Port Vale · Away10 Apr 2023	10 Apr 2023	D 0-0	2.56	1.40	1	−0.40	−18.17	−€1.00
M41	Bolton · Home15 Apr 2023	15 Apr 2023	L 0-1	2.33	1.50	0	−1.50	−19.67	−€1.00
M42	Portsmouth · Home18 Apr 2023	18 Apr 2023	D 1-1	2.08	1.64	1	−0.64	−20.31	−€1.00
M43	Barnsley · Away22 Apr 2023	22 Apr 2023	L 0-2	3.91	0.99	0	−0.99	−21.30	−€1.00
M44	Cheltenham · Home25 Apr 2023	25 Apr 2023	W 4-0	1.55	2.07	3	+0.93	−20.37	+€0.55
M45	Forest Green · Away29 Apr 2023	29 Apr 2023	W 3-0	1.61	2.00	3	+1.00	−19.37	+€0.61
M46	Accrington · Home7 May 2023	7 May 2023	L 1-2	1.41	2.21	0	−2.21	−21.58	−€1.00
Total					68.58	47	−21.58		−€19.90