Points
53Points expected by the market
64.60Gap
−11.60Yield
−40.2%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.88 | +48.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 14 | 23 | −1.50 | −17.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 23 | 19 | −11.69 | −62.9% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 8 | 8 | +0.71 | −26.5% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.88 | +48.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 12 | 22 | +0.61 | −3.2% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 10 | 7 | −6.31 | −72.9% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 2 | 1 | −2.11 | −100.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 13 | 12 | −5.37 | −55.2% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 8 | 8 | +0.71 | −26.5% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Leyton Orient · Home5 Aug 2023 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.42 | +1.42 |
| M2 | Peterborough · Away12 Aug 2023 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.02 | +0.40 |
| M3 | Bristol Rovers · Home15 Aug 2023 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.55 | −1.15 |
| M4 | Port Vale · Home19 Aug 2023 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.70 | −2.85 |
| M5 | Oxford · Away26 Aug 2023 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.92 | −3.77 |
| M6 | Fleetwood Town · Home2 Sep 2023 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.35 | −2.42 |
| M7 | Stevenage · Away16 Sep 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.02 | −2.44 |
| M8 | Wycombe · Home23 Sep 2023 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.39 | −1.04 |
| M9 | Shrewsbury · Away30 Sep 2023 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.51 | −1.55 |
| M10 | Exeter · Home3 Oct 2023 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.24 | −0.31 |
| M11 | Blackpool · Home7 Oct 2023 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.51 | −0.81 |
| M12 | Reading · Home21 Oct 2023 | W 4-0 | 3 | +1.24 | +0.43 |
| M13 | Lincoln · Away24 Oct 2023 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.47 | −1.04 |
| M14 | Bolton · Home28 Oct 2023 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.45 | −2.50 |
| M15 | Wigan · Away31 Oct 2023 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.77 | −0.73 |
| M16 | Portsmouth · Away11 Nov 2023 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.08 | −0.66 |
| M17 | Carlisle · Away25 Nov 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.56 | −1.21 |
| M18 | Cheltenham · Home28 Nov 2023 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.97 | −0.24 |
| M19 | Cambridge · Home9 Dec 2023 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.96 | −1.20 |
| M20 | Barnsley · Away16 Dec 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.02 | −1.21 |
| M21 | Burton · Home23 Dec 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.05 | −2.26 |
| M22 | Leyton Orient · Away26 Dec 2023 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.30 | −3.56 |
| M23 | Bristol Rovers · Away29 Dec 2023 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.09 | −4.65 |
| M24 | Oxford · Home1 Jan 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.40 | −6.05 |
| M25 | Port Vale · Away6 Jan 2024 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.22 | −6.27 |
| M26 | Peterborough · Home13 Jan 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.05 | −7.32 |
| M27 | Burton · Away20 Jan 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.56 | −8.87 |
| M28 | Northampton · Home23 Jan 2024 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.76 | −10.63 |
| M29 | Blackpool · Away27 Jan 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.22 | −10.41 |
| M30 | Derby · Home3 Feb 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.11 | −11.52 |
| M31 | Reading · Away10 Feb 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.18 | −12.70 |
| M32 | Lincoln · Home13 Feb 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.53 | −13.23 |
| M33 | Bolton · Away17 Feb 2024 | D 3-3 | 1 | +0.11 | −13.12 |
| M34 | Portsmouth · Home24 Feb 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.10 | −13.22 |
| M35 | Derby · Away27 Feb 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.29 | −10.94 |
| M36 | Northampton · Away2 Mar 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.51 | −11.45 |
| M37 | Cheltenham · Away5 Mar 2024 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.74 | −9.71 |
| M38 | Carlisle · Home9 Mar 2024 | W 3-2 | 3 | +0.88 | −8.84 |
| M39 | Fleetwood Town · Away16 Mar 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.40 | −9.23 |
| M40 | Exeter · Away29 Mar 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.39 | −9.62 |
| M41 | Stevenage · Home1 Apr 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.31 | −9.93 |
| M42 | Barnsley · Home6 Apr 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.69 | −8.24 |
| M43 | Wigan · Home9 Apr 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.68 | −8.92 |
| M44 | Cambridge · Away13 Apr 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.56 | −9.48 |
| M45 | Shrewsbury · Home20 Apr 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.87 | −10.35 |
| M46 | Wycombe · Away27 Apr 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.25 | −11.60 |
| Total | 53 | −11.60 | |||