Points
43Points expected by the market
54.88Gap
−11.88Yield
−41.8%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 7 | 8 | −3.53 | −41.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 22 | 28 | −0.89 | −16.6% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 17 | 7 | −7.46 | −74.6% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 7 | 8 | −3.53 | −41.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 11 | 15 | −0.07 | −10.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 5 | 0 | −4.43 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 11 | 13 | −0.83 | −22.9% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 12 | 7 | −3.03 | −64.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Carlisle · Away5 Aug 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.21 |
| M2 | Cambridge · Home12 Aug 2023 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.57 | −1.78 |
| M3 | Bolton · Away15 Aug 2023 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.81 | −2.59 |
| M4 | Derby · Away19 Aug 2023 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.84 | −3.42 |
| M5 | Shrewsbury · Home26 Aug 2023 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.65 | −5.08 |
| M6 | Charlton · Away2 Sep 2023 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.09 | −6.17 |
| M7 | Oxford · Home16 Sep 2023 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.20 | −7.38 |
| M8 | Burton · Away23 Sep 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.39 | −7.76 |
| M9 | Leyton Orient · Home30 Sep 2023 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.44 | −6.32 |
| M10 | Cheltenham · Away3 Oct 2023 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.47 | −4.85 |
| M11 | Wycombe · Home7 Oct 2023 | L 1-4 | 0 | −1.55 | −6.40 |
| M12 | Lincoln · Home21 Oct 2023 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.60 | −8.00 |
| M13 | Reading · Away24 Oct 2023 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.87 | −6.12 |
| M14 | Barnsley · Away28 Oct 2023 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.08 | −6.05 |
| M15 | Blackpool · Home1 Nov 2023 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.15 | −6.19 |
| M16 | Exeter · Home11 Nov 2023 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.41 | −4.78 |
| M17 | Stevenage · Home25 Nov 2023 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.26 | −6.04 |
| M18 | Wigan · Away28 Nov 2023 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.32 | −7.36 |
| M19 | Northampton · Away9 Dec 2023 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.15 | −8.50 |
| M20 | Peterborough · Home16 Dec 2023 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.88 | −9.39 |
| M21 | Portsmouth · Away23 Dec 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.52 | −8.87 |
| M22 | Carlisle · Home26 Dec 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.74 | −9.61 |
| M23 | Bolton · Home29 Dec 2023 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.84 | −10.45 |
| M24 | Shrewsbury · Away1 Jan 2024 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.41 | −11.86 |
| M25 | Derby · Home6 Jan 2024 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.80 | −12.66 |
| M26 | Cambridge · Away13 Jan 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.05 | −13.71 |
| M27 | Portsmouth · Home20 Jan 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.89 | −14.60 |
| M28 | Wycombe · Away27 Jan 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.21 | −14.39 |
| M29 | Port Vale · Home3 Feb 2024 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.76 | −12.63 |
| M30 | Bristol Rovers · Away6 Feb 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +2.11 | −10.52 |
| M31 | Lincoln · Away10 Feb 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.06 | −11.58 |
| M32 | Reading · Home13 Feb 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.30 | −11.88 |
| M33 | Barnsley · Home17 Feb 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.01 | −12.89 |
| M34 | Exeter · Away24 Feb 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.10 | −12.98 |
| M35 | Port Vale · Away27 Feb 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.27 | −13.25 |
| M36 | Wigan · Home2 Mar 2024 | W 4-2 | 3 | +1.53 | −11.73 |
| M37 | Stevenage · Away9 Mar 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.19 | −11.54 |
| M38 | Bristol Rovers · Home12 Mar 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.61 | −12.15 |
| M39 | Charlton · Home16 Mar 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.32 | −12.47 |
| M40 | Cheltenham · Home29 Mar 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.65 | −14.12 |
| M41 | Oxford · Away1 Apr 2024 | L 0-4 | 0 | −0.82 | −14.94 |
| M42 | Blackpool · Away9 Apr 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.85 | −15.80 |
| M43 | Northampton · Home13 Apr 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.32 | −14.48 |
| M44 | Peterborough · Away16 Apr 2024 | L 1-4 | 0 | −0.71 | −15.19 |
| M45 | Leyton Orient · Away20 Apr 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.76 | −13.43 |
| M46 | Burton · Home27 Apr 2024 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.55 | −11.88 |
| Total | 43 | −11.88 | |||