Points
65Points expected by the market
62.01Gap
+2.99Yield
+8.0%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 10 | 15 | −3.40 | −28.9% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 26 | 38 | +3.39 | +12.7% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 10 | 12 | +3.00 | +32.5% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 10 | 15 | −3.40 | −28.9% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 12 | 17 | +0.70 | +6.7% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 0 | −1.01 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 14 | 21 | +2.69 | +17.9% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 9 | 12 | +4.01 | +47.2% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Charlton · Away5 Aug 2023 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.15 | −1.15 |
| M2 | Portsmouth · Home12 Aug 2023 | L 0-4 | 0 | −1.22 | −2.37 |
| M3 | Wycombe · Away15 Aug 2023 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.10 | −3.46 |
| M4 | Blackpool · Away19 Aug 2023 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.23 | −3.23 |
| M5 | Cambridge · Home26 Aug 2023 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.61 | −1.62 |
| M6 | Stevenage · Home2 Sep 2023 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.32 | −2.94 |
| M7 | Exeter · Away9 Sep 2023 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.00 | −0.94 |
| M8 | Peterborough · Away16 Sep 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.92 |
| M9 | Shrewsbury · Home23 Sep 2023 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.24 | +0.32 |
| M10 | Fleetwood Town · Away30 Sep 2023 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.17 | −0.85 |
| M11 | Reading · Home7 Oct 2023 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.50 | +0.65 |
| M12 | Carlisle · Away14 Oct 2023 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.65 | +2.30 |
| M13 | Barnsley · Home21 Oct 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.37 | +1.94 |
| M14 | Northampton · Away24 Oct 2023 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.28 | +1.66 |
| M15 | Burton · Away28 Oct 2023 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.50 | +1.16 |
| M16 | Oxford · Home11 Nov 2023 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.31 | −0.15 |
| M17 | Lincoln · Home21 Nov 2023 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.76 | −1.91 |
| M18 | Wigan · Home25 Nov 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.71 | −2.62 |
| M19 | Bristol Rovers · Away28 Nov 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.08 | −2.69 |
| M20 | Derby · Home9 Dec 2023 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.01 | −3.70 |
| M21 | Cheltenham · Away16 Dec 2023 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.64 | −2.06 |
| M22 | Bolton · Away23 Dec 2023 | L 2-3 | 0 | −0.76 | −2.82 |
| M23 | Charlton · Home26 Dec 2023 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.57 | −1.25 |
| M24 | Wycombe · Home29 Dec 2023 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.47 | −1.72 |
| M25 | Cambridge · Away1 Jan 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.72 | 0.00 |
| M26 | Portsmouth · Away13 Jan 2024 | W 3-0 | 3 | +2.22 | +2.22 |
| M27 | Bolton · Home20 Jan 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.78 | +4.00 |
| M28 | Reading · Away27 Jan 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.39 | +3.61 |
| M29 | Carlisle · Home3 Feb 2024 | W 3-2 | 3 | +0.92 | +4.53 |
| M30 | Port Vale · Away6 Feb 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.44 | +5.97 |
| M31 | Barnsley · Away10 Feb 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.22 | +4.75 |
| M32 | Northampton · Home13 Feb 2024 | W 4-3 | 3 | +1.01 | +5.76 |
| M33 | Burton · Home17 Feb 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −2.09 | +3.67 |
| M34 | Oxford · Away24 Feb 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.83 | +5.50 |
| M35 | Blackpool · Home27 Feb 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.57 | +7.07 |
| M36 | Bristol Rovers · Home2 Mar 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.79 | +5.28 |
| M37 | Wigan · Away9 Mar 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.55 | +3.73 |
| M38 | Port Vale · Home12 Mar 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.89 | +2.84 |
| M39 | Stevenage · Away16 Mar 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.02 | +4.86 |
| M40 | Lincoln · Away29 Mar 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.06 | +3.80 |
| M41 | Peterborough · Home1 Apr 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.15 | +2.65 |
| M42 | Cheltenham · Home6 Apr 2024 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.36 | +4.01 |
| M43 | Exeter · Home9 Apr 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.69 | +3.32 |
| M44 | Derby · Away13 Apr 2024 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.59 | +2.73 |
| M45 | Fleetwood Town · Home20 Apr 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.49 | +1.24 |
| M46 | Shrewsbury · Away27 Apr 2024 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.76 | +2.99 |
| Total | 65 | +2.99 | |||