Points
61Points expected by the market
68.01Gap
−7.01Yield
−8.2%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 0 | −2.13 | −100.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 20 | 34 | −1.24 | −14.4% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 19 | 21 | −4.50 | −14.2% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 6 | 6 | +0.85 | +46.2% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 0 | −2.13 | −100.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 13 | 18 | −5.33 | −45.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 8 | 5 | −6.59 | −72.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 3 | +2.06 | +301.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 7 | 16 | +4.09 | +42.6% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 11 | 16 | +2.09 | +28.2% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 5 | 3 | −1.20 | −4.8% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Mansfield · Home9 Aug 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.52 | −1.52 |
| M2 | Lincoln · Away17 Aug 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.59 | +0.07 |
| M3 | Northampton · Home24 Aug 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.97 | −0.89 |
| M4 | Crawley Town · Away31 Aug 2024 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.39 | +0.49 |
| M5 | Bristol Rovers · Home7 Sep 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.03 | +1.52 |
| M6 | Stevenage · Away14 Sep 2024 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.43 | +0.08 |
| M7 | Burton · Away21 Sep 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.19 | +1.28 |
| M8 | Stockport · Home28 Sep 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.51 | +0.76 |
| M9 | Wycombe · Home1 Oct 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.55 | +0.21 |
| M10 | Huddersfield · Away5 Oct 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.20 | −0.99 |
| M11 | Blackpool · Away19 Oct 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.87 | +0.88 |
| M12 | Charlton · Home22 Oct 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.57 | +0.31 |
| M13 | Shrewsbury · Away26 Oct 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.32 | +1.63 |
| M14 | Rotherham · Home8 Nov 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.29 | +2.92 |
| M15 | Cambridge · Away16 Nov 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.73 | +2.20 |
| M16 | Wigan · Home23 Nov 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.73 | +0.47 |
| M17 | Reading · Home26 Nov 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.92 | −0.45 |
| M18 | Wrexham · Away3 Dec 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.32 | −1.76 |
| M19 | Birmingham · Home7 Dec 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.10 | −2.86 |
| M20 | Exeter · Away14 Dec 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.53 | −1.33 |
| M21 | Leyton Orient · Home21 Dec 2024 | L 0-4 | 0 | −1.49 | −2.82 |
| M22 | Bolton · Away26 Dec 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.91 | −0.91 |
| M23 | Peterborough · Away29 Dec 2024 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.46 | +0.55 |
| M24 | Wrexham · Home1 Jan 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.37 | +1.92 |
| M25 | Crawley Town · Home4 Jan 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.93 | +2.85 |
| M26 | Bristol Rovers · Away18 Jan 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.84 | +1.01 |
| M27 | Stevenage · Home25 Jan 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.71 | −0.71 |
| M28 | Wycombe · Away28 Jan 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.09 | −1.79 |
| M29 | Burton · Home1 Feb 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.93 | −2.72 |
| M30 | Stockport · Away8 Feb 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.04 | −3.76 |
| M31 | Huddersfield · Home15 Feb 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.40 | −5.16 |
| M32 | Rotherham · Away22 Feb 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.68 | −3.48 |
| M33 | Northampton · Away25 Feb 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.30 | −2.17 |
| M34 | Lincoln · Home1 Mar 2025 | W 4-3 | 3 | +1.45 | −0.72 |
| M35 | Charlton · Away4 Mar 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.96 | −1.68 |
| M36 | Blackpool · Home8 Mar 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.47 | −3.15 |
| M37 | Mansfield · Away15 Mar 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.26 | −4.41 |
| M38 | Cambridge · Home22 Mar 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.85 | −5.26 |
| M39 | Wigan · Away29 Mar 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.20 | −5.45 |
| M40 | Exeter · Home1 Apr 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.72 | −7.18 |
| M41 | Birmingham · Away5 Apr 2025 | L 2-6 | 0 | −0.53 | −7.71 |
| M42 | Bolton · Home12 Apr 2025 | W 4-1 | 3 | +2.06 | −5.65 |
| M43 | Leyton Orient · Away18 Apr 2025 | L 3-4 | 0 | −0.86 | −6.51 |
| M44 | Peterborough · Home21 Apr 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.56 | −7.06 |
| M45 | Shrewsbury · Home26 Apr 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −2.13 | −9.20 |
| M46 | Reading · Away3 May 2025 | W 4-2 | 3 | +2.18 | −7.01 |
| Total | 61 | −7.01 | |||