Points
67Points expected by the market
69.72Gap
−2.72Yield
−15.8%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.87 | +47.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 22 | 29 | −9.76 | −54.1% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 17 | 30 | +6.74 | +37.8% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 6 | 5 | −0.57 | −37.5% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.87 | +47.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 17 | 24 | −6.55 | −52.8% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 4 | 5 | −0.67 | −41.8% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 0 | −1.00 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 5 | 5 | −3.22 | −58.6% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 13 | 25 | +7.40 | +62.2% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 5 | 5 | +0.43 | −25.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Crawley Town · Away10 Aug 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.83 | −1.83 |
| M2 | Stockport · Home17 Aug 2024 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.73 | −3.57 |
| M3 | Cambridge · Away24 Aug 2024 | D 4-4 | 1 | −0.61 | −4.17 |
| M4 | Wycombe · Home31 Aug 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.67 | −4.84 |
| M5 | Exeter · Home14 Sep 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.06 | −3.78 |
| M6 | Charlton · Away21 Sep 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.73 | −2.05 |
| M7 | Huddersfield · Away24 Sep 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +2.00 | −0.05 |
| M8 | Burton · Home28 Sep 2024 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.87 | +0.82 |
| M9 | Lincoln · Home1 Oct 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.72 | +0.10 |
| M10 | Mansfield · Away5 Oct 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.54 | −1.44 |
| M11 | Barnsley · Home19 Oct 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.61 | −3.05 |
| M12 | Peterborough · Away22 Oct 2024 | L 1-5 | 0 | −1.33 | −4.38 |
| M13 | Wigan · Home28 Oct 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.57 | −4.95 |
| M14 | Leyton Orient · Away9 Nov 2024 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.34 | −6.29 |
| M15 | Northampton · Home16 Nov 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −1.01 | −7.30 |
| M16 | Bolton · Away23 Nov 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.91 | −8.20 |
| M17 | Bristol Rovers · Away26 Nov 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.51 | −6.69 |
| M18 | Shrewsbury · Away4 Dec 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.38 | −5.31 |
| M19 | Reading · Away14 Dec 2024 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.80 | −3.51 |
| M20 | Stevenage · Home21 Dec 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.65 | −4.16 |
| M21 | Wrexham · Away26 Dec 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.17 | −5.33 |
| M22 | Birmingham · Away29 Dec 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.33 | −5.00 |
| M23 | Shrewsbury · Home1 Jan 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.06 | −6.06 |
| M24 | Wycombe · Away4 Jan 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.01 | −6.04 |
| M25 | Huddersfield · Home18 Jan 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.35 | −6.39 |
| M26 | Exeter · Away25 Jan 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.48 | −4.91 |
| M27 | Lincoln · Away28 Jan 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.79 | −3.12 |
| M28 | Charlton · Home1 Feb 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.48 | −3.60 |
| M29 | Burton · Away8 Feb 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.62 | −4.22 |
| M30 | Rotherham · Home11 Feb 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.65 | −4.87 |
| M31 | Mansfield · Home15 Feb 2025 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.74 | −5.61 |
| M32 | Crawley Town · Home22 Feb 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.03 | −4.59 |
| M33 | Stockport · Away1 Mar 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.00 | −5.59 |
| M34 | Peterborough · Home4 Mar 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.63 | −6.22 |
| M35 | Barnsley · Away8 Mar 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.74 | −4.48 |
| M36 | Cambridge · Home11 Mar 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.01 | −3.47 |
| M37 | Leyton Orient · Home15 Mar 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.60 | −5.07 |
| M38 | Northampton · Away22 Mar 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.49 | −3.59 |
| M39 | Bolton · Home29 Mar 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.53 | −2.06 |
| M40 | Reading · Home1 Apr 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.08 | −0.98 |
| M41 | Rotherham · Away5 Apr 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.45 | −2.43 |
| M42 | Stevenage · Away18 Apr 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.60 | −0.83 |
| M43 | Wrexham · Home21 Apr 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.37 | −2.20 |
| M44 | Wigan · Away26 Apr 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.45 | −2.65 |
| M45 | Birmingham · Home30 Apr 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.00 | −3.65 |
| M46 | Bristol Rovers · Home3 May 2025 | W 4-1 | 3 | +0.93 | −2.72 |
| Total | 67 | −2.72 | |||