Points
68Points expected by the market
76.10Gap
−8.10Yield
−12.9%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 6 | 11 | −2.22 | −31.3% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 22 | 39 | −0.23 | +0.6% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 15 | 14 | −6.83 | −33.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 3 | 4 | +1.19 | +26.7% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 6 | 11 | −2.22 | −31.3% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 11 | 17 | −2.88 | −21.5% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 5 | 6 | −1.34 | −11.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 3 | +1.99 | +280.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 11 | 22 | +2.65 | +22.6% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 10 | 8 | −5.49 | −44.5% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 2 | 1 | −0.80 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Leyton Orient · Away10 Aug 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.29 | +1.29 |
| M2 | Wrexham · Home18 Aug 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.77 | +0.52 |
| M3 | Charlton · Away24 Aug 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.53 | −1.01 |
| M4 | Exeter · Home31 Aug 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −2.12 | −3.13 |
| M5 | Huddersfield · Home14 Sep 2024 | L 0-4 | 0 | −1.52 | −4.65 |
| M6 | Reading · Home21 Sep 2024 | W 5-2 | 3 | +1.22 | −3.43 |
| M7 | Crawley Town · Away28 Sep 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.15 | −2.29 |
| M8 | Northampton · Away1 Oct 2024 | W 4-2 | 3 | +1.13 | −1.16 |
| M9 | Shrewsbury · Home5 Oct 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −1.20 | −2.36 |
| M10 | Burton · Home19 Oct 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.70 | −1.67 |
| M11 | Birmingham · Away22 Oct 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.89 | −2.56 |
| M12 | Peterborough · Home26 Oct 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.24 | −1.32 |
| M13 | Stevenage · Away29 Oct 2024 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.44 | +0.12 |
| M14 | Stockport · Away9 Nov 2024 | L 0-5 | 0 | −1.40 | −1.28 |
| M15 | Blackpool · Home23 Nov 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.15 | −0.13 |
| M16 | Cambridge · Away26 Nov 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.83 | −0.96 |
| M17 | Mansfield · Home3 Dec 2024 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.10 | +0.14 |
| M18 | Wigan · Home14 Dec 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.91 | −1.77 |
| M19 | Wycombe · Away20 Dec 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.09 | −1.68 |
| M20 | Barnsley · Home26 Dec 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.65 | −3.33 |
| M21 | Lincoln · Home29 Dec 2024 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.45 | −1.88 |
| M22 | Mansfield · Away1 Jan 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.37 | −3.25 |
| M23 | Exeter · Away4 Jan 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.36 | −1.89 |
| M24 | Rotherham · Away11 Jan 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.41 | −3.31 |
| M25 | Cambridge · Home18 Jan 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −1.19 | −4.49 |
| M26 | Charlton · Home21 Jan 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.59 | −6.09 |
| M27 | Huddersfield · Away25 Jan 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.88 | −4.21 |
| M28 | Northampton · Home28 Jan 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.81 | −3.40 |
| M29 | Reading · Away1 Feb 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.72 | −5.12 |
| M30 | Crawley Town · Home8 Feb 2025 | W 4-3 | 3 | +0.92 | −4.21 |
| M31 | Shrewsbury · Away15 Feb 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.29 | −2.92 |
| M32 | Leyton Orient · Home22 Feb 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.47 | −1.45 |
| M33 | Wrexham · Away1 Mar 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.13 | −1.58 |
| M34 | Birmingham · Home4 Mar 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.99 | +0.41 |
| M35 | Burton · Away8 Mar 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.29 | +1.70 |
| M36 | Bristol Rovers · Away11 Mar 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.86 | −0.16 |
| M37 | Stockport · Home15 Mar 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.44 | −1.61 |
| M38 | Blackpool · Away29 Mar 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.26 | −2.87 |
| M39 | Wigan · Away1 Apr 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.38 | −1.49 |
| M40 | Bristol Rovers · Home5 Apr 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.78 | −0.71 |
| M41 | Rotherham · Home8 Apr 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.92 | −2.63 |
| M42 | Barnsley · Away12 Apr 2025 | L 1-4 | 0 | −1.81 | −4.44 |
| M43 | Wycombe · Home18 Apr 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.29 | −5.73 |
| M44 | Lincoln · Away21 Apr 2025 | L 2-4 | 0 | −1.30 | −7.03 |
| M45 | Peterborough · Away26 Apr 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.42 | −7.45 |
| M46 | Stevenage · Home3 May 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.65 | −8.10 |
| Total | 68 | −8.10 | |||