Points
38Points expected by the market
46.76Gap
−8.76Yield
−30.7%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 4 | 6 | −0.45 | +7.5% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 12 | 15 | +0.28 | +8.8% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 30 | 17 | −8.60 | −51.5% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 4 | 6 | −0.45 | +7.5% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 8 | 8 | −2.06 | −15.1% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 11 | 7 | −3.29 | −61.4% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 4 | 7 | +2.34 | +56.5% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 19 | 10 | −5.31 | −45.8% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Stockport · Away10 Aug 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.79 | −0.79 |
| M2 | Crawley Town · Home17 Aug 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.56 | −2.35 |
| M3 | Blackpool · Home24 Aug 2024 | D 4-4 | 1 | −0.11 | −2.46 |
| M4 | Bristol Rovers · Away31 Aug 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.09 | −3.56 |
| M5 | Mansfield · Away14 Sep 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.94 | −4.50 |
| M6 | Wycombe · Away21 Sep 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.79 | −5.29 |
| M7 | Lincoln · Home28 Sep 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.07 | −6.36 |
| M8 | Rotherham · Home1 Oct 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.04 | −7.40 |
| M9 | Exeter · Away5 Oct 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.81 | −8.21 |
| M10 | Wigan · Home19 Oct 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.87 | −6.35 |
| M11 | Stevenage · Away22 Oct 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +2.15 | −4.19 |
| M12 | Burton · Home26 Oct 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.43 | −2.77 |
| M13 | Peterborough · Away9 Nov 2024 | L 1-6 | 0 | −0.88 | −3.65 |
| M14 | Barnsley · Home16 Nov 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.02 | −3.66 |
| M15 | Northampton · Away23 Nov 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.19 | −3.85 |
| M16 | Bolton · Home26 Nov 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.09 | −3.77 |
| M17 | Reading · Away3 Dec 2024 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.92 | −4.69 |
| M18 | Shrewsbury · Home7 Dec 2024 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.40 | −3.29 |
| M19 | Wrexham · Away14 Dec 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.32 | −2.97 |
| M20 | Huddersfield · Home20 Dec 2024 | L 0-4 | 0 | −1.00 | −3.97 |
| M21 | Charlton · Away26 Dec 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.75 | −4.72 |
| M22 | Leyton Orient · Away29 Dec 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.75 | −5.47 |
| M23 | Reading · Home1 Jan 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.47 | −6.94 |
| M24 | Bristol Rovers · Home4 Jan 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.72 | −8.65 |
| M25 | Bolton · Away18 Jan 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.39 | −8.26 |
| M26 | Mansfield · Home25 Jan 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.90 | −6.36 |
| M27 | Rotherham · Away28 Jan 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.83 | −7.19 |
| M28 | Wycombe · Home1 Feb 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.02 | −7.16 |
| M29 | Lincoln · Away8 Feb 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.12 | −7.04 |
| M30 | Birmingham · Away11 Feb 2025 | L 0-4 | 0 | −0.42 | −7.46 |
| M31 | Exeter · Home15 Feb 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.56 | −9.02 |
| M32 | Stockport · Home22 Feb 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +2.07 | −6.95 |
| M33 | Crawley Town · Away1 Mar 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.88 | −5.07 |
| M34 | Stevenage · Home4 Mar 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.21 | −6.28 |
| M35 | Wigan · Away8 Mar 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.01 | −7.29 |
| M36 | Blackpool · Away11 Mar 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.76 | −8.05 |
| M37 | Peterborough · Home15 Mar 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.13 | −9.18 |
| M38 | Barnsley · Away22 Mar 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.09 | −9.09 |
| M39 | Northampton · Home29 Mar 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.35 | −9.45 |
| M40 | Wrexham · Home1 Apr 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.18 | −9.27 |
| M41 | Shrewsbury · Away5 Apr 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.75 | −7.52 |
| M42 | Charlton · Home12 Apr 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.86 | −8.38 |
| M43 | Huddersfield · Away18 Apr 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.25 | −6.13 |
| M44 | Leyton Orient · Home21 Apr 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.98 | −7.12 |
| M45 | Burton · Away26 Apr 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.97 | −8.08 |
| M46 | Birmingham · Home3 May 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.68 | −8.76 |
| Total | 38 | −8.76 | |||