Points
64Points expected by the market
73.86Gap
−9.86Yield
−13.1%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 5 | 8 | −3.02 | −43.2% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 18 | 27 | −5.95 | −20.7% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 19 | 29 | +2.87 | +20.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 4 | 0 | −3.75 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 5 | 8 | −3.02 | −43.2% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 12 | 20 | −2.33 | −14.7% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 5 | 6 | −0.87 | −11.2% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 0 | −0.97 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 6 | 7 | −3.62 | −32.7% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 14 | 23 | +3.74 | +31.6% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 3 | 0 | −2.78 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Peterborough · Away10 Aug 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.70 | +1.70 |
| M2 | Stevenage · Home17 Aug 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.07 | +2.77 |
| M3 | Shrewsbury · Home24 Aug 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.73 | +3.49 |
| M4 | Rotherham · Away31 Aug 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.47 | +2.02 |
| M5 | Bolton · Away14 Sep 2024 | W 4-0 | 3 | +1.80 | +3.82 |
| M6 | Northampton · Home21 Sep 2024 | L 1-3 | 0 | −2.29 | +1.54 |
| M7 | Blackpool · Home24 Sep 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.74 | −0.21 |
| M8 | Reading · Away28 Sep 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.44 | −1.65 |
| M9 | Birmingham · Away1 Oct 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.79 | −2.43 |
| M10 | Barnsley · Home5 Oct 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.47 | −0.96 |
| M11 | Bristol Rovers · Home19 Oct 2024 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.94 | −0.02 |
| M12 | Wrexham · Away22 Oct 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.15 |
| M13 | Exeter · Home26 Oct 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.11 | +0.96 |
| M14 | Crawley Town · Away9 Nov 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −1.01 | −0.05 |
| M15 | Charlton · Home23 Nov 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.10 | +1.05 |
| M16 | Leyton Orient · Away26 Nov 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.48 | +2.53 |
| M17 | Wigan · Home3 Dec 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.12 | +3.65 |
| M18 | Mansfield · Away7 Dec 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.48 | +5.12 |
| M19 | Lincoln · Home14 Dec 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.72 | +4.40 |
| M20 | Cambridge · Away20 Dec 2024 | W 4-0 | 3 | +1.27 | +5.67 |
| M21 | Stockport · Home26 Dec 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.45 | +7.12 |
| M22 | Burton · Home29 Dec 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.25 | +5.88 |
| M23 | Rotherham · Home4 Jan 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.95 | +4.92 |
| M24 | Wycombe · Away7 Jan 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.73 | +6.65 |
| M25 | Blackpool · Away18 Jan 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.38 | +6.28 |
| M26 | Bolton · Home25 Jan 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.61 | +4.67 |
| M27 | Birmingham · Home28 Jan 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.18 | +3.49 |
| M28 | Northampton · Away1 Feb 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.81 | +1.68 |
| M29 | Reading · Home8 Feb 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −1.11 | +0.57 |
| M30 | Barnsley · Away15 Feb 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.67 | +2.24 |
| M31 | Shrewsbury · Away18 Feb 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.38 | +3.62 |
| M32 | Peterborough · Home22 Feb 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.88 | +1.73 |
| M33 | Wigan · Away25 Feb 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.45 | +0.28 |
| M34 | Stevenage · Away1 Mar 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.65 | +1.94 |
| M35 | Wrexham · Home4 Mar 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.42 | +0.51 |
| M36 | Bristol Rovers · Away8 Mar 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.84 | −1.32 |
| M37 | Crawley Town · Home15 Mar 2025 | W 5-1 | 3 | +0.90 | −0.42 |
| M38 | Charlton · Away29 Mar 2025 | L 0-4 | 0 | −1.08 | −1.51 |
| M39 | Lincoln · Away1 Apr 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.35 | −2.86 |
| M40 | Mansfield · Home5 Apr 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.24 | −1.61 |
| M41 | Wycombe · Home8 Apr 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.20 | −2.81 |
| M42 | Burton · Away12 Apr 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.61 | −4.42 |
| M43 | Cambridge · Home18 Apr 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −2.00 | −6.42 |
| M44 | Stockport · Away21 Apr 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.91 | −7.33 |
| M45 | Exeter · Away26 Apr 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.55 | −8.89 |
| M46 | Leyton Orient · Home3 May 2025 | L 1-4 | 0 | −0.97 | −9.86 |
| Total | 64 | −9.86 | |||