Points
61Points expected by the market
65.57Gap
−4.57Yield
−20.0%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 18 | 30 | −2.01 | −17.2% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 19 | 28 | +2.85 | +15.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 9 | 3 | −5.41 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 13 | 23 | −0.49 | −15.4% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 9 | 13 | +0.45 | +15.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 0 | −0.99 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 5 | 7 | −1.52 | −22.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 10 | 15 | +2.41 | +15.1% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 8 | 3 | −4.42 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Burton · Away10 Aug 2024 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.50 | +1.50 |
| M2 | Barnsley · Home17 Aug 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.32 | +0.19 |
| M3 | Mansfield · Home24 Aug 2024 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.66 | +1.85 |
| M4 | Stevenage · Away31 Aug 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.74 | +3.59 |
| M5 | Peterborough · Away14 Sep 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.13 | +3.46 |
| M6 | Wigan · Home21 Sep 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.66 | +2.79 |
| M7 | Cambridge · Away28 Sep 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.35 | +4.14 |
| M8 | Blackpool · Away1 Oct 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.01 | +4.13 |
| M9 | Leyton Orient · Home5 Oct 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.43 | +5.56 |
| M10 | Birmingham · Home19 Oct 2024 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.99 | +4.57 |
| M11 | Crawley Town · Away22 Oct 2024 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.62 | +2.95 |
| M12 | Stockport · Home26 Oct 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.57 | +4.53 |
| M13 | Northampton · Home29 Oct 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.12 | +5.64 |
| M14 | Bristol Rovers · Away9 Nov 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.61 | +5.03 |
| M15 | Exeter · Away16 Nov 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.37 | +4.65 |
| M16 | Wycombe · Home23 Nov 2024 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.36 | +3.30 |
| M17 | Wrexham · Away26 Nov 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.07 | +2.23 |
| M18 | Rotherham · Away3 Dec 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.30 | +0.94 |
| M19 | Charlton · Home7 Dec 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.54 | +0.40 |
| M20 | Huddersfield · Away14 Dec 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | 0.00 | +0.40 |
| M21 | Reading · Home21 Dec 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.04 | +1.45 |
| M22 | Shrewsbury · Away26 Dec 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.83 | −0.38 |
| M23 | Bolton · Away29 Dec 2024 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.17 | −1.55 |
| M24 | Rotherham · Home1 Jan 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.65 | −3.20 |
| M25 | Stevenage · Home4 Jan 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.63 | −3.83 |
| M26 | Northampton · Away18 Jan 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.19 | −2.64 |
| M27 | Peterborough · Home25 Jan 2025 | W 5-1 | 3 | +1.37 | −1.26 |
| M28 | Blackpool · Home28 Jan 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.50 | −2.76 |
| M29 | Wigan · Away1 Feb 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.33 | −3.09 |
| M30 | Cambridge · Home8 Feb 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.84 | −3.93 |
| M31 | Leyton Orient · Away15 Feb 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −0.99 | −4.92 |
| M32 | Mansfield · Away18 Feb 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.78 | −3.14 |
| M33 | Burton · Home22 Feb 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.78 | −4.92 |
| M34 | Barnsley · Away1 Mar 2025 | L 3-4 | 0 | −1.17 | −6.09 |
| M35 | Crawley Town · Home4 Mar 2025 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.18 | −4.91 |
| M36 | Birmingham · Away8 Mar 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.69 | −5.60 |
| M37 | Bristol Rovers · Home15 Mar 2025 | W 5-0 | 3 | +0.94 | −4.66 |
| M38 | Exeter · Home22 Mar 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.94 | −5.60 |
| M39 | Wycombe · Away29 Mar 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.93 | −6.53 |
| M40 | Huddersfield · Home1 Apr 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.65 | −4.88 |
| M41 | Charlton · Away5 Apr 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.17 | −4.71 |
| M42 | Shrewsbury · Home12 Apr 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.06 | −5.76 |
| M43 | Reading · Away18 Apr 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.85 | −3.91 |
| M44 | Bolton · Home21 Apr 2025 | W 4-2 | 3 | +1.61 | −2.31 |
| M45 | Stockport · Away26 Apr 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −0.92 | −3.23 |
| M46 | Wrexham · Home3 May 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.34 | −4.57 |
| Total | 61 | −4.57 | |||