Points
54Points expected by the market
63.38Gap
−9.38Yield
−22.3%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 0 | −2.12 | −100.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 12 | 16 | −5.06 | −23.4% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 24 | 35 | +2.81 | +10.7% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 9 | 3 | −5.01 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 0 | −2.12 | −100.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 8 | 13 | −1.52 | −9.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 13 | 14 | −3.67 | −21.9% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 1 | +0.19 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 4 | 3 | −3.54 | −52.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 11 | 21 | +6.48 | +49.2% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 8 | 2 | −5.20 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Barnsley · Away9 Aug 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.78 | +1.78 |
| M2 | Burton · Home17 Aug 2024 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.97 | +0.81 |
| M3 | Lincoln · Away24 Aug 2024 | L 1-4 | 0 | −1.39 | −0.58 |
| M4 | Stockport · Home31 Aug 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.87 |
| M5 | Cambridge · Home14 Sep 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.19 | +0.31 |
| M6 | Shrewsbury · Home21 Sep 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.13 | +1.45 |
| M7 | Northampton · Away28 Sep 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.59 | +3.04 |
| M8 | Crawley Town · Away1 Oct 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.52 | +4.56 |
| M9 | Blackpool · Home5 Oct 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.80 | +6.36 |
| M10 | Stevenage · Home19 Oct 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.51 | +4.85 |
| M11 | Wigan · Away22 Oct 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.76 | +6.61 |
| M12 | Birmingham · Home26 Oct 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.19 | +6.80 |
| M13 | Wrexham · Away9 Nov 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.92 | +5.89 |
| M14 | Bristol Rovers · Home23 Nov 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.88 | +4.01 |
| M15 | Wycombe · Away26 Nov 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.83 | +3.18 |
| M16 | Bolton · Away3 Dec 2024 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.86 | +2.32 |
| M17 | Huddersfield · Home7 Dec 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.20 | +1.12 |
| M18 | Charlton · Away14 Dec 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.97 |
| M19 | Rotherham · Home21 Dec 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.46 | +2.42 |
| M20 | Peterborough · Away26 Dec 2024 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.53 | +3.95 |
| M21 | Reading · Away29 Dec 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.56 | +2.39 |
| M22 | Bolton · Home1 Jan 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.65 | +4.04 |
| M23 | Stockport · Away4 Jan 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.90 | +5.94 |
| M24 | Wycombe · Home18 Jan 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.33 | +4.62 |
| M25 | Cambridge · Away25 Jan 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.62 | +3.00 |
| M26 | Crawley Town · Home28 Jan 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −2.12 | +0.88 |
| M27 | Shrewsbury · Away1 Feb 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.63 | −0.75 |
| M28 | Northampton · Home7 Feb 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.88 | −2.63 |
| M29 | Leyton Orient · Away11 Feb 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.04 | −3.67 |
| M30 | Blackpool · Away15 Feb 2025 | D 3-3 | 1 | 0.00 | −3.66 |
| M31 | Lincoln · Home18 Feb 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.48 | −5.15 |
| M32 | Wrexham · Home23 Feb 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.16 | −6.31 |
| M33 | Burton · Away1 Mar 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.20 | −6.50 |
| M34 | Wigan · Home4 Mar 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.57 | −7.07 |
| M35 | Stevenage · Away8 Mar 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.07 | −7.14 |
| M36 | Exeter · Away11 Mar 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.50 | −8.64 |
| M37 | Barnsley · Home15 Mar 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.53 | −7.11 |
| M38 | Bristol Rovers · Away29 Mar 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.26 | −5.84 |
| M39 | Charlton · Home1 Apr 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.17 | −7.01 |
| M40 | Huddersfield · Away5 Apr 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.97 | −7.98 |
| M41 | Leyton Orient · Home8 Apr 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.40 | −9.39 |
| M42 | Rotherham · Away18 Apr 2025 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.37 | −9.76 |
| M43 | Reading · Home21 Apr 2025 | L 1-5 | 0 | −1.61 | −11.37 |
| M44 | Birmingham · Away27 Apr 2025 | L 0-4 | 0 | −0.52 | −11.89 |
| M45 | Peterborough · Home30 Apr 2025 | W 4-2 | 3 | +1.33 | −10.56 |
| M46 | Exeter · Home3 May 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.18 | −9.38 |
| Total | 54 | −9.38 | |||