Points
51Points expected by the market
61.74Gap
−10.74Yield
−33.7%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 0 | −2.08 | −100.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 12 | 21 | +0.46 | −7.9% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 22 | 25 | −4.11 | −32.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 11 | 5 | −5.01 | −59.5% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 0 | −2.08 | −100.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 8 | 14 | −0.17 | −13.8% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 12 | 16 | −0.15 | −13.7% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 2 | 1 | −0.89 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 4 | 7 | +0.63 | +3.7% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 10 | 9 | −3.96 | −53.8% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 9 | 4 | −4.12 | −50.4% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Huddersfield · Home10 Aug 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.44 | −1.44 |
| M2 | Shrewsbury · Away17 Aug 2024 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.37 | −0.06 |
| M3 | Exeter · Away24 Aug 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.50 | +1.44 |
| M4 | Wrexham · Home31 Aug 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.49 | −0.05 |
| M5 | Lincoln · Home14 Sep 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.61 | −0.65 |
| M6 | Bristol Rovers · Home21 Sep 2024 | W 3-2 | 3 | +0.93 | +0.27 |
| M7 | Leyton Orient · Away24 Sep 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.07 |
| M8 | Birmingham · Away28 Sep 2024 | L 2-3 | 0 | −0.69 | −0.76 |
| M9 | Wigan · Away1 Oct 2024 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.12 | −1.88 |
| M10 | Stevenage · Home5 Oct 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.50 | −0.37 |
| M11 | Rotherham · Home12 Oct 2024 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.69 |
| M12 | Wycombe · Away19 Oct 2024 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.11 | −1.81 |
| M13 | Blackpool · Home22 Oct 2024 | W 5-1 | 3 | +1.58 | −0.23 |
| M14 | Bolton · Away26 Oct 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.99 | −1.22 |
| M15 | Cambridge · Home9 Nov 2024 | W 6-1 | 3 | +1.11 | −0.11 |
| M16 | Reading · Home23 Nov 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.60 | −1.71 |
| M17 | Burton · Home4 Dec 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −2.08 | −3.79 |
| M18 | Northampton · Away9 Dec 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.58 | −5.38 |
| M19 | Crawley Town · Home14 Dec 2024 | W 4-3 | 3 | +1.19 | −4.19 |
| M20 | Stockport · Away20 Dec 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.74 | −4.93 |
| M21 | Mansfield · Home26 Dec 2024 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.27 | −6.20 |
| M22 | Barnsley · Home29 Dec 2024 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.21 | −7.41 |
| M23 | Burton · Away1 Jan 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.55 | −7.97 |
| M24 | Wrexham · Away4 Jan 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.82 | −8.79 |
| M25 | Leyton Orient · Home18 Jan 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.38 | −9.17 |
| M26 | Exeter · Home21 Jan 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.74 | −9.91 |
| M27 | Lincoln · Away25 Jan 2025 | L 1-5 | 0 | −1.09 | −11.00 |
| M28 | Wigan · Home28 Jan 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.56 | −9.44 |
| M29 | Bristol Rovers · Away2 Feb 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.55 | −10.99 |
| M30 | Charlton · Away11 Feb 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.94 | −11.93 |
| M31 | Stevenage · Away15 Feb 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.03 | −11.96 |
| M32 | Huddersfield · Away22 Feb 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.13 | −9.83 |
| M33 | Shrewsbury · Home1 Mar 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.27 | −8.57 |
| M34 | Blackpool · Away4 Mar 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.11 | −8.68 |
| M35 | Wycombe · Home8 Mar 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.20 | −8.87 |
| M36 | Cambridge · Away15 Mar 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.39 | −7.48 |
| M37 | Charlton · Home22 Mar 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.84 | −5.64 |
| M38 | Reading · Away29 Mar 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.50 | −7.14 |
| M39 | Crawley Town · Away1 Apr 2025 | W 4-3 | 3 | +1.55 | −5.59 |
| M40 | Northampton · Home5 Apr 2025 | L 0-4 | 0 | −1.71 | −7.30 |
| M41 | Birmingham · Home8 Apr 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.82 | −8.12 |
| M42 | Stockport · Home18 Apr 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.07 | −8.19 |
| M43 | Barnsley · Away21 Apr 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.19 | −8.38 |
| M44 | Bolton · Home26 Apr 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.33 | −8.71 |
| M45 | Mansfield · Away30 Apr 2025 | L 2-4 | 0 | −1.09 | −9.80 |
| M46 | Rotherham · Away3 May 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.94 | −10.74 |
| Total | 51 | −10.74 | |||