Points
59Points expected by the market
64.42Gap
−5.42Yield
−12.6%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 16 | 25 | −3.32 | −18.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 22 | 26 | −2.87 | −15.5% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 8 | 8 | +0.76 | +6.9% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 11 | 18 | −2.05 | −17.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 12 | 20 | +4.10 | +33.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 5 | 7 | −1.27 | −21.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 10 | 6 | −6.96 | −74.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 8 | 8 | +0.76 | +6.9% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Exeter · Away10 Aug 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.44 | −1.44 |
| M2 | Bristol Rovers · Home17 Aug 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.66 | −2.10 |
| M3 | Wycombe · Away24 Aug 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.26 | −3.36 |
| M4 | Huddersfield · Home31 Aug 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.74 | −1.61 |
| M5 | Charlton · Away7 Sep 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.23 | −1.84 |
| M6 | Burton · Home14 Sep 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −1.00 | −2.84 |
| M7 | Birmingham · Home21 Sep 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.14 | −3.98 |
| M8 | Shrewsbury · Away28 Sep 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.66 | −4.64 |
| M9 | Cambridge · Away1 Oct 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.32 | −3.32 |
| M10 | Reading · Home5 Oct 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.35 | −1.97 |
| M11 | Peterborough · Away12 Oct 2024 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.42 | −2.38 |
| M12 | Wrexham · Home19 Oct 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.49 | −3.87 |
| M13 | Leyton Orient · Away22 Oct 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.18 | −5.05 |
| M14 | Stevenage · Home26 Oct 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.31 | −3.73 |
| M15 | Barnsley · Away8 Nov 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.02 | −4.75 |
| M16 | Crawley Town · Away23 Nov 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.57 | −6.33 |
| M17 | Lincoln · Home3 Dec 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.60 | −4.73 |
| M18 | Northampton · Home14 Dec 2024 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.05 | −3.68 |
| M19 | Mansfield · Away21 Dec 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.19 | −4.86 |
| M20 | Wigan · Home26 Dec 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.59 | −6.46 |
| M21 | Stockport · Home29 Dec 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.23 | −6.69 |
| M22 | Lincoln · Away1 Jan 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.94 | −4.75 |
| M23 | Huddersfield · Away4 Jan 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.21 | −4.54 |
| M24 | Bolton · Home11 Jan 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.70 | −2.84 |
| M25 | Charlton · Home18 Jan 2025 | W 4-2 | 3 | +1.67 | −1.17 |
| M26 | Burton · Away25 Jan 2025 | L 2-4 | 0 | −1.65 | −2.81 |
| M27 | Cambridge · Home28 Jan 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.09 | −1.72 |
| M28 | Birmingham · Away1 Feb 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.73 | −2.45 |
| M29 | Shrewsbury · Home8 Feb 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.93 | −4.38 |
| M30 | Blackpool · Away11 Feb 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.07 | −4.45 |
| M31 | Reading · Away15 Feb 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.51 | −5.97 |
| M32 | Barnsley · Home22 Feb 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.41 | −7.37 |
| M33 | Bristol Rovers · Away1 Mar 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.30 | −6.08 |
| M34 | Leyton Orient · Home4 Mar 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.49 | −4.59 |
| M35 | Wrexham · Away8 Mar 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.95 | −5.54 |
| M36 | Exeter · Home15 Mar 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.88 | −6.42 |
| M37 | Wycombe · Home18 Mar 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.22 | −7.64 |
| M38 | Crawley Town · Home29 Mar 2025 | L 0-4 | 0 | −1.96 | −9.60 |
| M39 | Northampton · Away1 Apr 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.62 | −7.98 |
| M40 | Blackpool · Home5 Apr 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.73 | −6.25 |
| M41 | Bolton · Away8 Apr 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.17 | −4.08 |
| M42 | Stockport · Away12 Apr 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.79 | −4.87 |
| M43 | Mansfield · Home18 Apr 2025 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.35 | −5.22 |
| M44 | Wigan · Away21 Apr 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.20 | −6.42 |
| M45 | Stevenage · Away27 Apr 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.16 | −6.58 |
| M46 | Peterborough · Home3 May 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.16 | −5.42 |
| Total | 59 | −5.42 | |||