Points
75Points expected by the market
80.77Gap
−5.77Yield
−25.0%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 7 | 16 | +0.66 | +2.9% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 29 | 49 | −3.13 | −24.1% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 9 | 10 | −2.34 | −41.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 0 | −0.96 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 7 | 16 | +0.66 | +2.9% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 15 | 31 | +2.94 | −6.5% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 1 | 0 | −1.48 | −100.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 14 | 18 | −6.07 | −43.1% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 8 | 10 | −0.85 | −33.6% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 0 | −0.96 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Stockport · Away3 Aug 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.30 | −1.30 |
| M2 | Plymouth · Home9 Aug 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.08 | −0.22 |
| M3 | Barnsley · Away16 Aug 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.48 | −0.70 |
| M4 | Reading · Home20 Aug 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.05 | −1.75 |
| M5 | Lincoln · Home23 Aug 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.85 | −2.60 |
| M6 | Blackpool · Away30 Aug 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.56 | −3.17 |
| M7 | AFC Wimbledon · Home6 Sep 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.85 | −2.32 |
| M8 | Leyton Orient · Away13 Sep 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.63 | −2.95 |
| M9 | Wigan · Home20 Sep 2025 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.21 | −1.74 |
| M10 | Northampton · Away27 Sep 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.86 | −3.60 |
| M11 | Peterborough · Home4 Oct 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.86 | −2.74 |
| M12 | Burton · Away11 Oct 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.90 | −4.64 |
| M13 | Huddersfield · Away16 Oct 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.61 | −3.03 |
| M14 | Cardiff · Home25 Oct 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.28 | −1.75 |
| M15 | Port Vale · Home8 Nov 2025 | W 4-0 | 3 | +1.14 | −0.61 |
| M16 | Bradford · Home22 Nov 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.80 | −1.41 |
| M17 | Luton · Away29 Nov 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.40 | −1.81 |
| M18 | Mansfield · Away9 Dec 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.22 | −0.59 |
| M19 | Exeter · Home13 Dec 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.80 | +0.22 |
| M20 | Wycombe · Away20 Dec 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.39 | −1.17 |
| M21 | Rotherham · Home26 Dec 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.77 | −0.40 |
| M22 | Mansfield · Home29 Dec 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −2.23 | −2.63 |
| M23 | Doncaster · Away1 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.77 | −3.40 |
| M24 | Northampton · Home4 Jan 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −1.24 | −4.64 |
| M25 | Peterborough · Away10 Jan 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.55 | −6.19 |
| M26 | Wigan · Away17 Jan 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.42 | −4.77 |
| M27 | Stevenage · Away20 Jan 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.66 | −5.43 |
| M28 | Leyton Orient · Home24 Jan 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.96 | −4.47 |
| M29 | Burton · Home27 Jan 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.85 | −3.62 |
| M30 | AFC Wimbledon · Away31 Jan 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.24 | −2.38 |
| M31 | Barnsley · Home7 Feb 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.05 | −1.33 |
| M32 | Lincoln · Away14 Feb 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.24 | −1.57 |
| M33 | Reading · Away17 Feb 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.57 | −2.14 |
| M34 | Blackpool · Home21 Feb 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −1.08 | −3.22 |
| M35 | Exeter · Away28 Feb 2026 | W 5-1 | 3 | +1.39 | −1.83 |
| M36 | Wycombe · Home7 Mar 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.27 | −0.56 |
| M37 | Rotherham · Away14 Mar 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.82 | −1.38 |
| M38 | Doncaster · Home17 Mar 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.98 | −2.35 |
| M39 | Port Vale · Away21 Mar 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −2.02 | −4.37 |
| M40 | Plymouth · Away3 Apr 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.75 | −2.63 |
| M41 | Stockport · Home6 Apr 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.57 | −3.20 |
| M42 | Cardiff · Away11 Apr 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.96 | −4.15 |
| M43 | Stevenage · Home14 Apr 2026 | W 5-1 | 3 | +1.17 | −2.99 |
| M44 | Huddersfield · Home18 Apr 2026 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.89 | −3.88 |
| M45 | Bradford · Away25 Apr 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.41 | −4.29 |
| M46 | Luton · Home2 May 2026 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.48 | −5.77 |
| Total | 75 | −5.77 | |||