Points
60Points expected by the market
64.11Gap
−4.11Yield
−18.7%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 14 | 25 | +0.35 | +4.6% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 24 | 32 | +0.21 | −5.1% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 8 | 3 | −4.67 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 13 | 22 | −0.78 | −0.6% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 9 | 10 | −2.20 | −45.8% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 1 | +0.02 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 1 | 3 | +1.13 | +73.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 15 | 22 | +2.41 | +19.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 7 | 2 | −4.69 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Exeter · Home2 Aug 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.11 | +1.11 |
| M2 | Mansfield · Away9 Aug 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.71 | +2.82 |
| M3 | Wycombe · Home16 Aug 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.50 | +2.31 |
| M4 | Huddersfield · Away19 Aug 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.12 | +1.19 |
| M5 | Port Vale · Away23 Aug 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.73 | +2.92 |
| M6 | Rotherham · Home30 Aug 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.07 | +4.00 |
| M7 | Bradford · Home6 Sep 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.53 | +5.52 |
| M8 | Wigan · Away13 Sep 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.27 | +4.25 |
| M9 | AFC Wimbledon · Home20 Sep 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.74 | +2.51 |
| M10 | Luton · Away27 Sep 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.90 | +1.61 |
| M11 | Burton · Home4 Oct 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.88 | +0.73 |
| M12 | Leyton Orient · Away11 Oct 2025 | L 0-4 | 0 | −1.19 | −0.46 |
| M13 | Northampton · Home18 Oct 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.76 | −2.22 |
| M14 | Reading · Away25 Oct 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.17 | −2.39 |
| M15 | Barnsley · Home8 Nov 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.57 | −3.96 |
| M16 | Lincoln · Away15 Nov 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.03 | −4.99 |
| M17 | Stevenage · Away22 Nov 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.09 | −5.08 |
| M18 | Peterborough · Home29 Nov 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.41 | −3.66 |
| M19 | Stockport · Home9 Dec 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.41 | −5.08 |
| M20 | Cardiff · Away13 Dec 2025 | L 3-4 | 0 | −0.85 | −5.93 |
| M21 | Plymouth · Home20 Dec 2025 | L 1-5 | 0 | −1.77 | −7.70 |
| M22 | Blackpool · Away26 Dec 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.26 | −8.96 |
| M23 | Stockport · Away29 Dec 2025 | L 2-4 | 0 | −0.98 | −9.95 |
| M24 | Bolton · Home1 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.02 | −9.93 |
| M25 | AFC Wimbledon · Away17 Jan 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.63 | −8.30 |
| M26 | Wigan · Home24 Jan 2026 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.56 | −8.86 |
| M27 | Leyton Orient · Home27 Jan 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.31 | −7.54 |
| M28 | Bradford · Away31 Jan 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.30 | −8.84 |
| M29 | Burton · Away3 Feb 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.52 | −7.32 |
| M30 | Wycombe · Away7 Feb 2026 | L 0-4 | 0 | −1.11 | −8.43 |
| M31 | Huddersfield · Home17 Feb 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.61 | −6.82 |
| M32 | Rotherham · Away21 Feb 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.59 | −5.23 |
| M33 | Cardiff · Home28 Feb 2026 | L 0-4 | 0 | −1.16 | −6.39 |
| M34 | Plymouth · Away7 Mar 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.04 | −7.43 |
| M35 | Luton · Home10 Mar 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.41 | −7.83 |
| M36 | Blackpool · Home14 Mar 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.24 | −6.60 |
| M37 | Bolton · Away17 Mar 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.20 | −6.39 |
| M38 | Barnsley · Away21 Mar 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.64 | −4.75 |
| M39 | Port Vale · Home24 Mar 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.11 | −3.64 |
| M40 | Mansfield · Home3 Apr 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.55 | −5.19 |
| M41 | Exeter · Away6 Apr 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.53 | −6.72 |
| M42 | Reading · Home11 Apr 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.25 | −5.47 |
| M43 | Northampton · Away18 Apr 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.13 | −4.35 |
| M44 | Lincoln · Home21 Apr 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.19 | −5.53 |
| M45 | Stevenage · Home25 Apr 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.11 | −5.64 |
| M46 | Peterborough · Away2 May 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.53 | −4.11 |
| Total | 60 | −4.11 | |||