Points
74Points expected by the market
75.94Gap
−1.94Yield
−11.8%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 3 | 9 | +2.47 | +41.3% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 24 | 43 | −1.09 | −6.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 17 | 22 | −1.40 | −18.5% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 2 | 0 | −1.92 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 2 | 6 | +1.56 | +37.5% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 16 | 30 | −0.58 | −5.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 5 | 9 | +1.79 | −9.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.91 | +49.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 8 | 13 | −0.51 | −8.1% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 12 | 13 | −3.18 | −22.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 2 | 0 | −1.92 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | AFC Wimbledon · Home1 Aug 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.92 | +0.92 |
| M2 | Peterborough · Away9 Aug 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.09 | +2.01 |
| M3 | Bradford · Away16 Aug 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.57 | +0.43 |
| M4 | Wigan · Home19 Aug 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.05 | +1.48 |
| M5 | Cardiff · Home23 Aug 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.64 | −0.16 |
| M6 | Burton · Away30 Aug 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.09 | +0.93 |
| M7 | Plymouth · Home13 Sep 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −2.05 | −1.12 |
| M8 | Lincoln · Away20 Sep 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.61 | −2.73 |
| M9 | Doncaster · Home27 Sep 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.16 | −1.58 |
| M10 | Blackpool · Away30 Sep 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.53 | −2.10 |
| M11 | Stevenage · Away4 Oct 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.34 | −3.44 |
| M12 | Mansfield · Home18 Oct 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.88 | −5.32 |
| M13 | Northampton · Away25 Oct 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.30 | −4.01 |
| M14 | Stockport · Away8 Nov 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.86 | −2.15 |
| M15 | Rotherham · Home15 Nov 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −1.08 | −3.23 |
| M16 | Barnsley · Away22 Nov 2025 | L 0-5 | 0 | −1.53 | −4.76 |
| M17 | Huddersfield · Home25 Nov 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.47 | −3.29 |
| M18 | Bolton · Home29 Nov 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.32 | −3.61 |
| M19 | Leyton Orient · Away9 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.42 | −4.03 |
| M20 | Port Vale · Home13 Dec 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.89 | −4.92 |
| M21 | Reading · Away18 Dec 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.32 | −6.25 |
| M22 | Wycombe · Home26 Dec 2025 | W 4-0 | 3 | +1.47 | −4.77 |
| M23 | Leyton Orient · Home29 Dec 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.04 | −3.73 |
| M24 | Exeter · Away1 Jan 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.58 | −5.32 |
| M25 | Stevenage · Home10 Jan 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.22 | −4.09 |
| M26 | Lincoln · Home17 Jan 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.47 | −4.56 |
| M27 | Plymouth · Away24 Jan 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.30 | −5.86 |
| M28 | Huddersfield · Away27 Jan 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.04 | −6.90 |
| M29 | Blackpool · Home31 Jan 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.05 | −5.85 |
| M30 | Bradford · Home7 Feb 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.25 | −4.60 |
| M31 | Cardiff · Away14 Feb 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.88 | −5.48 |
| M32 | Wigan · Away18 Feb 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.37 | −6.85 |
| M33 | Burton · Home21 Feb 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.85 | −7.70 |
| M34 | Port Vale · Away28 Feb 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.52 | −8.22 |
| M35 | Reading · Home7 Mar 2026 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.85 | −10.08 |
| M36 | Doncaster · Away10 Mar 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.32 | −10.40 |
| M37 | Wycombe · Away14 Mar 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.90 | −8.50 |
| M38 | Exeter · Home17 Mar 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.02 | −7.48 |
| M39 | Stockport · Home21 Mar 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.37 | −7.85 |
| M40 | Peterborough · Home3 Apr 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.96 | −6.90 |
| M41 | AFC Wimbledon · Away6 Apr 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.33 | −5.56 |
| M42 | Northampton · Home15 Apr 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.67 | −4.90 |
| M43 | Mansfield · Away18 Apr 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.56 | −5.45 |
| M44 | Rotherham · Away21 Apr 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.91 | −4.54 |
| M45 | Barnsley · Home25 Apr 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.89 | −3.65 |
| M46 | Bolton · Away2 May 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.71 | −1.94 |
| Total | 74 | −1.94 | |||