Points
65Points expected by the market
59.41Gap
+5.59Yield
+9.7%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 10 | 19 | +2.37 | −3.4% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 30 | 36 | −1.88 | −21.8% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 6 | 10 | +5.10 | +188.8% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 9 | 19 | +3.96 | +7.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 13 | 16 | −1.03 | −15.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 0 | −0.97 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 1 | 0 | −1.59 | −100.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 17 | 20 | −0.85 | −26.6% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 5 | 10 | +6.07 | +246.6% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Burton · Away2 Aug 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.59 | −1.59 |
| M2 | Doncaster · Home9 Aug 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.43 | −3.02 |
| M3 | Exeter · Away16 Aug 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.59 | −1.43 |
| M4 | Blackpool · Home19 Aug 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.64 | +0.21 |
| M5 | Leyton Orient · Home23 Aug 2025 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.65 | +1.85 |
| M6 | Lincoln · Away30 Aug 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.14 | +1.72 |
| M7 | Wycombe · Away6 Sep 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.09 | +0.62 |
| M8 | Stevenage · Home13 Sep 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.41 | +0.22 |
| M9 | Port Vale · Away20 Sep 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.12 | −0.90 |
| M10 | Rotherham · Home27 Sep 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.32 | +0.42 |
| M11 | Reading · Away4 Oct 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.20 |
| M12 | Luton · Away18 Oct 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +2.13 | +2.33 |
| M13 | Wigan · Home25 Oct 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.47 | +1.86 |
| M14 | Plymouth · Home28 Oct 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.21 | +3.07 |
| M15 | Northampton · Away8 Nov 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.54 | +1.53 |
| M16 | Huddersfield · Home22 Nov 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.39 | +0.14 |
| M17 | Cardiff · Away29 Nov 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.90 | −0.77 |
| M18 | Bolton · Home9 Dec 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.97 | −1.73 |
| M19 | AFC Wimbledon · Away13 Dec 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.24 | −1.98 |
| M20 | Stockport · Home20 Dec 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.13 | −3.11 |
| M21 | Barnsley · Away26 Dec 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.93 | −1.17 |
| M22 | Bolton · Away29 Dec 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.43 | +1.25 |
| M23 | Bradford · Home1 Jan 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.63 | +2.88 |
| M24 | Port Vale · Home17 Jan 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.45 | +4.33 |
| M25 | Stevenage · Away24 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.14 | +4.19 |
| M26 | Plymouth · Away27 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.25 | +3.94 |
| M27 | Wycombe · Home31 Jan 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.27 | +3.67 |
| M28 | Exeter · Home7 Feb 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.56 | +3.11 |
| M29 | Peterborough · Home10 Feb 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.49 | +1.62 |
| M30 | Blackpool · Away17 Feb 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.31 | +0.31 |
| M31 | Lincoln · Home21 Feb 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.08 | −0.77 |
| M32 | AFC Wimbledon · Home28 Feb 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.60 | −1.37 |
| M33 | Rotherham · Away3 Mar 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.36 | −1.73 |
| M34 | Reading · Home10 Mar 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.39 | −0.34 |
| M35 | Barnsley · Home14 Mar 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.64 | −0.98 |
| M36 | Bradford · Away17 Mar 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.16 | −0.82 |
| M37 | Northampton · Home21 Mar 2026 | W 4-1 | 3 | +0.96 | +0.14 |
| M38 | Doncaster · Away3 Apr 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.82 | +1.96 |
| M39 | Burton · Home6 Apr 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.56 | +1.40 |
| M40 | Wigan · Away11 Apr 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.24 | +0.16 |
| M41 | Leyton Orient · Away14 Apr 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.08 |
| M42 | Luton · Home18 Apr 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.10 |
| M43 | Stockport · Away21 Apr 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.26 | +2.16 |
| M44 | Huddersfield · Away25 Apr 2026 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.92 | +4.08 |
| M45 | Peterborough · Away28 Apr 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.39 | +3.69 |
| M46 | Cardiff · Home2 May 2026 | W 5-4 | 3 | +1.90 | +5.59 |
| Total | 65 | +5.59 | |||