Points
42Points expected by the market
53.32Gap
−11.32Yield
−17.4%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 4 | 5 | −1.64 | −47.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 25 | 26 | −7.08 | −31.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 17 | 11 | −2.59 | +9.4% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 3 | 4 | −1.07 | −29.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 16 | 13 | −8.75 | −67.8% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 4 | 4 | +0.43 | +33.3% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 1 | 1 | −0.57 | −100.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 9 | 13 | +1.67 | +34.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 13 | 7 | −3.03 | +2.1% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Rotherham · Away2 Aug 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.42 | −1.42 |
| M2 | Cardiff · Home7 Aug 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.29 | −1.71 |
| M3 | Burton · Away16 Aug 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.57 | −2.28 |
| M4 | Stevenage · Home19 Aug 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.38 | −3.66 |
| M5 | Doncaster · Home23 Aug 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.43 | −5.10 |
| M6 | Reading · Away30 Aug 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.27 | −6.37 |
| M7 | Leyton Orient · Home6 Sep 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.50 | −7.87 |
| M8 | Exeter · Away13 Sep 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.55 | −6.32 |
| M9 | Mansfield · Home20 Sep 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.40 | −4.92 |
| M10 | Barnsley · Away27 Sep 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.87 | −3.05 |
| M11 | Northampton · Home4 Oct 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.84 | −3.89 |
| M12 | AFC Wimbledon · Away11 Oct 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.38 | −4.27 |
| M13 | Wigan · Away18 Oct 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.19 | −5.46 |
| M14 | Stockport · Home27 Oct 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.28 | −6.74 |
| M15 | Bolton · Away8 Nov 2025 | L 0-4 | 0 | −0.88 | −7.62 |
| M16 | Wycombe · Home15 Nov 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.13 | −7.75 |
| M17 | Plymouth · Home22 Nov 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.63 | −9.38 |
| M18 | Lincoln · Away29 Nov 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.99 | −10.37 |
| M19 | Luton · Away13 Dec 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.16 | −10.21 |
| M20 | Peterborough · Home20 Dec 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.49 | −11.71 |
| M21 | Huddersfield · Away26 Dec 2025 | L 0-5 | 0 | −0.85 | −12.56 |
| M22 | Bradford · Away29 Dec 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.82 | −13.38 |
| M23 | Blackpool · Home1 Jan 2026 | W 5-1 | 3 | +1.63 | −11.75 |
| M24 | Mansfield · Away17 Jan 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.17 | −12.92 |
| M25 | Exeter · Home24 Jan 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.51 | −14.43 |
| M26 | Leyton Orient · Away31 Jan 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.90 | −12.53 |
| M27 | AFC Wimbledon · Home3 Feb 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.57 | −14.10 |
| M28 | Burton · Home7 Feb 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.45 | −14.55 |
| M29 | Stevenage · Away17 Feb 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.82 | −15.37 |
| M30 | Reading · Home21 Feb 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.29 | −15.65 |
| M31 | Northampton · Away24 Feb 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.77 | −13.88 |
| M32 | Luton · Home28 Feb 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.19 | −14.07 |
| M33 | Bradford · Home11 Mar 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.00 | −15.08 |
| M34 | Huddersfield · Home14 Mar 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.04 | −15.04 |
| M35 | Blackpool · Away17 Mar 2026 | L 2-3 | 0 | −0.94 | −15.98 |
| M36 | Bolton · Home21 Mar 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.25 | −13.73 |
| M37 | Doncaster · Away24 Mar 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.86 | −14.59 |
| M38 | Wycombe · Away28 Mar 2026 | L 0-4 | 0 | −0.65 | −15.24 |
| M39 | Rotherham · Home7 Apr 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.62 | −13.62 |
| M40 | Barnsley · Home14 Apr 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.31 | −13.93 |
| M41 | Peterborough · Away16 Apr 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +2.22 | −11.71 |
| M42 | Wigan · Home19 Apr 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.17 | −11.88 |
| M43 | Cardiff · Away22 Apr 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.56 | −12.44 |
| M44 | Plymouth · Away25 Apr 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.51 | −12.95 |
| M45 | Stockport · Away28 Apr 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.48 | −10.47 |
| M46 | Lincoln · Home2 May 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.85 | −11.32 |
| Total | 42 | −11.32 | |||