Points
63Points expected by the market
58.61Gap
+4.39Yield
−7.2%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 6 | 9 | −1.04 | −36.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 28 | 47 | +9.18 | +23.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 12 | 7 | −3.76 | −63.8% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 6 | 9 | −1.04 | −36.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 15 | 28 | +7.38 | +37.9% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 2 | 0 | −1.75 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 13 | 19 | +1.80 | +6.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 10 | 7 | −2.00 | −56.5% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Lincoln · Away2 Aug 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.02 | −1.02 |
| M2 | Huddersfield · Home9 Aug 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.15 | −2.18 |
| M3 | AFC Wimbledon · Home16 Aug 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.48 | −3.66 |
| M4 | Bolton · Away20 Aug 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.26 | −3.39 |
| M5 | Wycombe · Away23 Aug 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.04 | −3.35 |
| M6 | Port Vale · Home30 Aug 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.55 | −1.81 |
| M7 | Barnsley · Away13 Sep 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −0.99 | −2.80 |
| M8 | Leyton Orient · Home20 Sep 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.57 | −1.23 |
| M9 | Stockport · Away27 Sep 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.22 | −1.00 |
| M10 | Mansfield · Home4 Oct 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.51 | −1.52 |
| M11 | Exeter · Away11 Oct 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.52 | −2.03 |
| M12 | Cardiff · Away18 Oct 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.76 | −2.80 |
| M13 | Northampton · Home21 Oct 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.27 | −1.52 |
| M14 | Doncaster · Home25 Oct 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.56 | −2.08 |
| M15 | Stevenage · Home6 Nov 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.71 | −0.37 |
| M16 | Rotherham · Home22 Nov 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.82 | −1.20 |
| M17 | Blackpool · Away29 Nov 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.69 | +0.50 |
| M18 | Peterborough · Home9 Dec 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.57 | −1.07 |
| M19 | Bradford · Away13 Dec 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.11 | −2.18 |
| M20 | Luton · Home18 Dec 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.63 | −0.55 |
| M21 | Plymouth · Away26 Dec 2025 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.60 | +1.05 |
| M22 | Peterborough · Away29 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.82 |
| M23 | Burton · Home1 Jan 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.24 | +2.07 |
| M24 | Stockport · Home4 Jan 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.60 | +3.66 |
| M25 | Leyton Orient · Away17 Jan 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.39 | +2.27 |
| M26 | Barnsley · Home24 Jan 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.53 | +1.75 |
| M27 | Exeter · Home27 Jan 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.60 | +1.15 |
| M28 | Northampton · Away31 Jan 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.51 | +2.66 |
| M29 | AFC Wimbledon · Away7 Feb 2026 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.40 | +1.26 |
| M30 | Wigan · Away10 Feb 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.79 | +3.04 |
| M31 | Wycombe · Home14 Feb 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.78 | +4.82 |
| M32 | Bolton · Home17 Feb 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.16 | +4.66 |
| M33 | Port Vale · Away21 Feb 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.43 | +4.23 |
| M34 | Bradford · Home28 Feb 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.65 | +5.88 |
| M35 | Luton · Away7 Mar 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +2.10 | +7.99 |
| M36 | Mansfield · Away10 Mar 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.11 | +6.88 |
| M37 | Plymouth · Home14 Mar 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.25 | +6.63 |
| M38 | Burton · Away17 Mar 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.85 | +8.48 |
| M39 | Stevenage · Away21 Mar 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.98 | +7.50 |
| M40 | Wigan · Home28 Mar 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.48 | +8.98 |
| M41 | Huddersfield · Away3 Apr 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.11 | +9.09 |
| M42 | Lincoln · Home6 Apr 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.97 | +8.12 |
| M43 | Doncaster · Away11 Apr 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.99 | +7.13 |
| M44 | Cardiff · Home18 Apr 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.78 | +6.34 |
| M45 | Rotherham · Away25 Apr 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.46 | +5.89 |
| M46 | Blackpool · Home2 May 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.50 | +4.39 |
| Total | 63 | +4.39 | |||