Points
41Points expected by the market
48.54Gap
−7.54Yield
−27.5%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 24 | 27 | −3.19 | −16.1% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 22 | 14 | −4.35 | −39.9% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 18 | 24 | +0.75 | −6.5% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 5 | 3 | −1.65 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 6 | 3 | −3.94 | −44.8% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 17 | 11 | −2.70 | −22.2% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Port Vale · Home2 Aug 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.71 | +1.71 |
| M2 | Stevenage · Away9 Aug 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.92 | +0.78 |
| M3 | Cardiff · Away16 Aug 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.70 | +0.09 |
| M4 | Wigan · Home23 Aug 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.12 |
| M5 | Doncaster · Away30 Aug 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.82 | −0.94 |
| M6 | Exeter · Home6 Sep 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.51 | +0.57 |
| M7 | AFC Wimbledon · Away13 Sep 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.11 | −0.53 |
| M8 | Stockport · Home20 Sep 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.02 | −1.55 |
| M9 | Mansfield · Away27 Sep 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.05 | −2.60 |
| M10 | Bradford · Home2 Oct 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.09 | −2.69 |
| M11 | Northampton · Away11 Oct 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.86 | −0.82 |
| M12 | Leyton Orient · Home18 Oct 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.63 | +0.81 |
| M13 | Barnsley · Away25 Oct 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.98 | +2.79 |
| M14 | Burton · Home4 Nov 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.49 | +2.30 |
| M15 | Lincoln · Home8 Nov 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.89 | +4.19 |
| M16 | Luton · Away15 Nov 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.30 | +4.49 |
| M17 | Reading · Away22 Nov 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.08 | +4.58 |
| M18 | Wycombe · Home29 Nov 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.02 | +4.60 |
| M19 | Blackpool · Home10 Dec 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.35 | +3.25 |
| M20 | Plymouth · Away13 Dec 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.10 | +2.15 |
| M21 | Huddersfield · Home20 Dec 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.12 | +1.02 |
| M22 | Bolton · Away26 Dec 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.55 | +0.47 |
| M23 | Blackpool · Away29 Dec 2025 | L 0-4 | 0 | −0.98 | −0.51 |
| M24 | Peterborough · Home1 Jan 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.22 | −1.74 |
| M25 | Stockport · Away17 Jan 2026 | L 2-3 | 0 | −0.68 | −2.42 |
| M26 | AFC Wimbledon · Home24 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.46 | −2.87 |
| M27 | Northampton · Home27 Jan 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.49 | −1.39 |
| M28 | Exeter · Away31 Jan 2026 | W 4-0 | 3 | +1.97 | +0.58 |
| M29 | Cardiff · Home7 Feb 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.08 | −0.50 |
| M30 | Burton · Away17 Feb 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.08 | −1.58 |
| M31 | Doncaster · Home21 Feb 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.32 | −2.90 |
| M32 | Bradford · Away24 Feb 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.80 | −3.69 |
| M33 | Plymouth · Home28 Feb 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.85 | −1.85 |
| M34 | Mansfield · Home3 Mar 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.36 | −2.21 |
| M35 | Huddersfield · Away7 Mar 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.76 | −2.97 |
| M36 | Bolton · Home14 Mar 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.07 | −2.90 |
| M37 | Peterborough · Away17 Mar 2026 | L 0-5 | 0 | −1.18 | −4.08 |
| M38 | Lincoln · Away21 Mar 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.54 | −4.62 |
| M39 | Stevenage · Home3 Apr 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.03 | −4.65 |
| M40 | Port Vale · Away7 Apr 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.33 | −5.98 |
| M41 | Barnsley · Home11 Apr 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.35 | −7.33 |
| M42 | Wigan · Away14 Apr 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.74 | −8.07 |
| M43 | Leyton Orient · Away18 Apr 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +2.29 | −5.79 |
| M44 | Luton · Home21 Apr 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.70 | −6.48 |
| M45 | Reading · Home25 Apr 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.27 | −6.76 |
| M46 | Wycombe · Away2 May 2026 | L 2-3 | 0 | −0.78 | −7.54 |
| Total | 41 | −7.54 | |||