← League Two 2022-23

Swindon

Season 2022-23 · 46 matches played

Last 5WWLLW

Points

Points expected by the market

63.05

Gap

−2.05

Yield

−7.5%

Market film

Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below

The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.

Performance by odds

Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.

Odds band	Matches playedMP	PointsPts	Expected	Gap	Yield
Heavy favourite under 1.50	0	—	—	—	—
Favourite 1.50 – 2.19	10	14	17.42	−3.42	−28.1%
Even 2.20 – 3.49	29	38	39.04	−1.04	−4.6%
Underdog 3.50 or more	7	9	6.60	+2.40	+9.9%
Heavy favourite under 1.50	0	—	—	—	—
Favourite 1.50 – 2.19	9	14	15.84	−1.84	−20.1%
Even 2.20 – 3.49	13	19	18.25	+0.75	−4.3%
Underdog 3.50 or more few matches	1	0	0.91	−0.91	−100.0%
Heavy favourite under 1.50	0	—	—	—	—
Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches	1	0	1.58	−1.58	−100.0%
Even 2.20 – 3.49	16	19	20.79	−1.79	−4.8%
Underdog 3.50 or more	6	9	5.68	+3.32	+28.2%

With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.

Match by match

M	Opponent	Date	ResultRes.	Odds to win	Expected	PointsPts	Gap	Running total	€1 bet
M1	Harrogate · Away30 Jul 2022	30 Jul 2022	L 0-3	2.36	1.46	0	−1.46	−1.46	−€1.00
M2	Salford · Home6 Aug 2022	6 Aug 2022	D 0-0	2.25	1.53	1	−0.53	−1.99	−€1.00
M3	Carlisle · Away13 Aug 2022	13 Aug 2022	D 1-1	2.70	1.32	1	−0.32	−2.32	−€1.00
M4	Leyton Orient · Home16 Aug 2022	16 Aug 2022	D 1-1	2.68	1.35	1	−0.35	−2.66	−€1.00
M5	Rochdale · Home20 Aug 2022	20 Aug 2022	W 3-0	2.21	1.56	3	+1.44	−1.22	+€1.21
M6	Stockport · Away27 Aug 2022	27 Aug 2022	D 1-1	4.65	0.85	1	+0.15	−1.07	−€1.00
M7	Gillingham · Away3 Sep 2022	3 Sep 2022	D 0-0	2.82	1.30	1	−0.30	−1.37	−€1.00
M8	Sutton · Home13 Sep 2022	13 Sep 2022	W 3-2	2.38	1.46	3	+1.54	+0.17	+€1.38
M9	Doncaster · Away17 Sep 2022	17 Sep 2022	W 1-0	2.56	1.38	3	+1.62	+1.78	+€1.56
M10	Grimsby · Away24 Sep 2022	24 Sep 2022	W 2-1	3.33	1.13	3	+1.87	+3.66	+€2.33
M11	Northampton · Home1 Oct 2022	1 Oct 2022	L 1-2	2.17	1.58	0	−1.58	+2.08	−€1.00
M12	Newport County · Home4 Oct 2022	4 Oct 2022	W 1-0	2.23	1.54	3	+1.46	+3.54	+€1.23
M13	Stevenage · Away8 Oct 2022	8 Oct 2022	L 0-2	4.60	0.87	0	−0.87	+2.67	−€1.00
M14	Colchester · Home15 Oct 2022	15 Oct 2022	W 1-0	1.97	1.69	3	+1.31	+3.98	+€0.97
M15	Hartlepool · Home22 Oct 2022	22 Oct 2022	W 2-1	1.70	1.90	3	+1.10	+5.08	+€0.70
M16	Bradford · Away25 Oct 2022	25 Oct 2022	D 1-1	3.30	1.12	1	−0.12	+4.95	−€1.00
M17	Mansfield · Away29 Oct 2022	29 Oct 2022	W 5-2	3.99	0.97	3	+2.03	+6.99	+€2.99
M18	Tranmere · Home12 Nov 2022	12 Nov 2022	D 1-1	2.20	1.56	1	−0.56	+6.43	−€1.00
M19	Crewe · Home19 Nov 2022	19 Nov 2022	L 0-1	1.76	1.85	0	−1.85	+4.58	−€1.00
M20	Crawley Town · Away3 Dec 2022	3 Dec 2022	L 0-2	2.15	1.58	0	−1.58	+3.00	−€1.00
M21	AFC Wimbledon · Home10 Dec 2022	10 Dec 2022	D 0-0	2.07	1.63	1	−0.63	+2.37	−€1.00
M22	Barrow · Away17 Dec 2022	17 Dec 2022	W 1-0	3.20	1.16	3	+1.84	+4.21	+€2.20
M23	Walsall · Home26 Dec 2022	26 Dec 2022	L 1-2	2.21	1.56	0	−1.56	+2.64	−€1.00
M24	Northampton · Away29 Dec 2022	29 Dec 2022	W 2-1	3.70	1.04	3	+1.96	+4.60	+€2.70
M25	Colchester · Away1 Jan 2023	1 Jan 2023	L 0-1	2.33	1.49	0	−1.49	+3.11	−€1.00
M26	Grimsby · Home14 Jan 2023	14 Jan 2023	W 5-0	2.42	1.45	3	+1.55	+4.66	+€1.42
M27	Gillingham · Home28 Jan 2023	28 Jan 2023	D 3-3	1.87	1.78	1	−0.78	+3.89	−€1.00
M28	Newport County · Away4 Feb 2023	4 Feb 2023	L 1-2	2.58	1.38	0	−1.38	+2.51	−€1.00
M29	Doncaster · Home11 Feb 2023	11 Feb 2023	L 0-2	1.95	1.72	0	−1.72	+0.79	−€1.00
M30	Sutton · Away14 Feb 2023	14 Feb 2023	L 1-2	3.27	1.15	0	−1.15	−0.36	−€1.00
M31	Salford · Away18 Feb 2023	18 Feb 2023	W 2-1	3.17	1.16	3	+1.84	+1.48	+€2.17
M32	Harrogate · Home25 Feb 2023	25 Feb 2023	W 3-0	1.76	1.85	3	+1.15	+2.63	+€0.76
M33	Leyton Orient · Away4 Mar 2023	4 Mar 2023	D 1-1	4.56	0.89	1	+0.11	+2.74	−€1.00
M34	Carlisle · Home11 Mar 2023	11 Mar 2023	L 1-2	2.82	1.29	0	−1.29	+1.45	−€1.00
M35	Walsall · Away14 Mar 2023	14 Mar 2023	D 0-0	3.61	1.07	1	−0.07	+1.38	−€1.00
M36	Rochdale · Away18 Mar 2023	18 Mar 2023	D 4-4	2.54	1.40	1	−0.40	+0.98	−€1.00
M37	Stockport · Home25 Mar 2023	25 Mar 2023	L 0-1	3.41	1.11	0	−1.11	−0.13	−€1.00
M38	Hartlepool · Away1 Apr 2023	1 Apr 2023	L 1-2	2.63	1.35	0	−1.35	−1.48	−€1.00
M39	Mansfield · Home7 Apr 2023	7 Apr 2023	L 2-4	2.95	1.24	0	−1.24	−2.72	−€1.00
M40	Tranmere · Away10 Apr 2023	10 Apr 2023	L 0-1	2.92	1.26	0	−1.26	−3.97	−€1.00
M41	Barrow · Home15 Apr 2023	15 Apr 2023	D 0-0	2.46	1.44	1	−0.44	−4.42	−€1.00
M42	Bradford · Home18 Apr 2023	18 Apr 2023	W 1-0	3.20	1.17	3	+1.83	−2.58	+€2.20
M43	AFC Wimbledon · Away22 Apr 2023	22 Apr 2023	W 5-1	2.97	1.25	3	+1.75	−0.83	+€1.97
M44	Stevenage · Home25 Apr 2023	25 Apr 2023	L 0-1	4.45	0.91	0	−0.91	−1.75	−€1.00
M45	Crewe · Away29 Apr 2023	29 Apr 2023	L 1-2	2.37	1.47	0	−1.47	−3.22	−€1.00
M46	Crawley Town · Home8 May 2023	8 May 2023	W 2-1	1.76	1.83	3	+1.17	−2.05	+€0.76
Total					63.05	61	−2.05		−€3.45