Points
61Points expected by the market
72.14Gap
−11.14Yield
−20.2%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.88 | +46.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 27 | 40 | −7.44 | −22.4% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 15 | 18 | −1.78 | −4.6% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 3 | 0 | −2.80 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.88 | +46.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 16 | 31 | +1.55 | +5.4% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 5 | 4 | −3.04 | −52.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 0 | −1.00 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 11 | 9 | −8.99 | −62.9% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 10 | 14 | +1.26 | +19.1% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 2 | 0 | −1.80 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Sutton · Away5 Aug 2023 | L 1-5 | 0 | −1.72 | −1.72 |
| M2 | Grimsby · Home12 Aug 2023 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.10 | −0.62 |
| M3 | Morecambe · Away15 Aug 2023 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.79 | −1.42 |
| M4 | Doncaster · Away19 Aug 2023 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.28 | −0.14 |
| M5 | Tranmere · Home26 Aug 2023 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.04 | +0.90 |
| M6 | Accrington · Home2 Sep 2023 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.95 | +1.86 |
| M7 | Milton Keynes Dons · Away9 Sep 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.51 | +1.34 |
| M8 | Salford · Away15 Sep 2023 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.44 | +2.79 |
| M9 | Forest Green · Home23 Sep 2023 | W 4-3 | 3 | +0.88 | +3.66 |
| M10 | Colchester · Away30 Sep 2023 | L 4-5 | 0 | −1.62 | +2.04 |
| M11 | Swindon · Home3 Oct 2023 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.25 | +3.29 |
| M12 | Barrow · Away7 Oct 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.55 | +2.74 |
| M13 | Mansfield · Home14 Oct 2023 | L 1-4 | 0 | −1.39 | +1.34 |
| M14 | Gillingham · Away21 Oct 2023 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.64 | +2.98 |
| M15 | Newport County · Home24 Oct 2023 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.04 | +4.02 |
| M16 | Wrexham · Home28 Oct 2023 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.45 | +2.57 |
| M17 | Crewe · Away11 Nov 2023 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.59 | +0.99 |
| M18 | Bradford · Home18 Nov 2023 | W 4-2 | 3 | +1.23 | +2.21 |
| M19 | AFC Wimbledon · Away25 Nov 2023 | L 2-4 | 0 | −1.16 | +1.06 |
| M20 | Crawley Town · Home28 Nov 2023 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.01 | +2.06 |
| M21 | Walsall · Home9 Dec 2023 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.87 | +0.19 |
| M22 | Harrogate · Away16 Dec 2023 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.78 | −1.58 |
| M23 | Stockport · Away22 Dec 2023 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.85 | −2.43 |
| M24 | Doncaster · Home26 Dec 2023 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.14 | −1.30 |
| M25 | Morecambe · Home29 Dec 2023 | W 5-0 | 3 | +0.99 | −0.31 |
| M26 | Tranmere · Away1 Jan 2024 | L 2-4 | 0 | −1.55 | −1.86 |
| M27 | Grimsby · Away13 Jan 2024 | D 5-5 | 1 | −0.54 | −2.40 |
| M28 | Barrow · Home27 Jan 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.68 | −3.07 |
| M29 | Mansfield · Away3 Feb 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.95 | −4.03 |
| M30 | Gillingham · Home9 Feb 2024 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.65 | −5.67 |
| M31 | Newport County · Away13 Feb 2024 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.64 | −4.04 |
| M32 | Wrexham · Away17 Feb 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.05 | −5.09 |
| M33 | Crewe · Home24 Feb 2024 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.70 | −6.79 |
| M34 | Sutton · Home27 Feb 2024 | L 3-4 | 0 | −1.91 | −8.70 |
| M35 | AFC Wimbledon · Home9 Mar 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.52 | −10.22 |
| M36 | Crawley Town · Away12 Mar 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.38 | −11.61 |
| M37 | Accrington · Away16 Mar 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.45 | −12.06 |
| M38 | Bradford · Away19 Mar 2024 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.94 | −10.12 |
| M39 | Salford · Home23 Mar 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.61 | −11.73 |
| M40 | Swindon · Away29 Mar 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.30 | −13.03 |
| M41 | Milton Keynes Dons · Home1 Apr 2024 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.25 | −13.28 |
| M42 | Harrogate · Home6 Apr 2024 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.23 | −12.05 |
| M43 | Walsall · Away13 Apr 2024 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.90 | −10.15 |
| M44 | Stockport · Home16 Apr 2024 | L 2-5 | 0 | −1.00 | −11.15 |
| M45 | Colchester · Home20 Apr 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.59 | −9.56 |
| M46 | Forest Green · Away27 Apr 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.58 | −11.14 |
| Total | 61 | −11.14 | |||