Points
51Points expected by the market
59.52Gap
−8.52Yield
−23.9%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 9 | 13 | −2.98 | −34.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 25 | 31 | −1.70 | +1.1% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 12 | 7 | −3.83 | −68.3% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 8 | 10 | −4.24 | −49.8% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 13 | 12 | −5.48 | −40.6% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 2 | 1 | −0.92 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 1 | 3 | +1.26 | +89.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 12 | 19 | +3.78 | +46.2% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 10 | 6 | −2.91 | −61.9% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Forest Green · Away5 Aug 2023 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.51 | +1.51 |
| M2 | Crawley Town · Home12 Aug 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.09 | +0.42 |
| M3 | Grimsby · Away15 Aug 2023 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.36 | −0.93 |
| M4 | Tranmere · Away19 Aug 2023 | W 4-3 | 3 | +1.72 | +0.79 |
| M5 | Accrington · Home26 Aug 2023 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.80 | −1.01 |
| M6 | Morecambe · Away2 Sep 2023 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.48 | −2.49 |
| M7 | Walsall · Home9 Sep 2023 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.54 | −4.03 |
| M8 | Notts County · Home15 Sep 2023 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.19 | −5.22 |
| M9 | Harrogate · Away23 Sep 2023 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.32 | −6.54 |
| M10 | Newport County · Home30 Sep 2023 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.47 | −5.07 |
| M11 | Sutton · Away3 Oct 2023 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.76 | −3.31 |
| M12 | Crewe · Home7 Oct 2023 | W 4-2 | 3 | +1.40 | −1.91 |
| M13 | Wrexham · Away14 Oct 2023 | L 2-3 | 0 | −0.74 | −2.65 |
| M14 | Swindon · Home21 Oct 2023 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.21 | −2.86 |
| M15 | Doncaster · Away24 Oct 2023 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.84 | −1.02 |
| M16 | Barrow · Away28 Oct 2023 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.01 | −1.01 |
| M17 | Mansfield · Home11 Nov 2023 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.96 | −1.97 |
| M18 | Gillingham · Away18 Nov 2023 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.06 | −3.03 |
| M19 | Milton Keynes Dons · Home25 Nov 2023 | L 2-4 | 0 | −1.22 | −4.26 |
| M20 | Stockport · Away28 Nov 2023 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.46 | −3.80 |
| M21 | AFC Wimbledon · Home16 Dec 2023 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.09 | −3.89 |
| M22 | Colchester · Away22 Dec 2023 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.08 | −4.96 |
| M23 | Tranmere · Home26 Dec 2023 | L 1-5 | 0 | −1.46 | −6.43 |
| M24 | Grimsby · Home29 Dec 2023 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.44 | −7.87 |
| M25 | Accrington · Away1 Jan 2024 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.90 | −8.78 |
| M26 | Forest Green · Home6 Jan 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.37 | −9.15 |
| M27 | Crawley Town · Away13 Jan 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.02 | −7.13 |
| M28 | Bradford · Away23 Jan 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.10 | −7.03 |
| M29 | Crewe · Away27 Jan 2024 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.90 | −5.14 |
| M30 | Wrexham · Home3 Feb 2024 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.83 | −3.31 |
| M31 | Swindon · Away10 Feb 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.44 | −3.74 |
| M32 | Doncaster · Home13 Feb 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.80 | −4.54 |
| M33 | Barrow · Home17 Feb 2024 | W 5-3 | 3 | +1.53 | −3.01 |
| M34 | Mansfield · Away24 Feb 2024 | L 1-5 | 0 | −0.81 | −3.82 |
| M35 | Colchester · Home27 Feb 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.68 | −4.50 |
| M36 | Gillingham · Home2 Mar 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.38 | −5.89 |
| M37 | Milton Keynes Dons · Away9 Mar 2024 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.95 | −6.83 |
| M38 | Stockport · Home14 Mar 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.05 | −6.79 |
| M39 | Morecambe · Home17 Mar 2024 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.27 | −5.52 |
| M40 | Notts County · Away23 Mar 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.84 | −3.68 |
| M41 | Sutton · Home29 Mar 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.67 | −5.35 |
| M42 | Walsall · Away1 Apr 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.12 | −6.47 |
| M43 | AFC Wimbledon · Away6 Apr 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.03 | −7.51 |
| M44 | Bradford · Home13 Apr 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.40 | −8.91 |
| M45 | Newport County · Away20 Apr 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.26 | −7.65 |
| M46 | Harrogate · Home27 Apr 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.87 | −8.52 |
| Total | 51 | −8.52 | |||