Points
50Points expected by the market
53.19Gap
−3.19Yield
−5.0%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 4 | 8 | +1.35 | −3.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 23 | 19 | −10.82 | −52.7% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 19 | 23 | +6.28 | +52.3% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 4 | 8 | +1.35 | −3.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 15 | 16 | −3.94 | −49.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 4 | 2 | −1.70 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 8 | 3 | −6.88 | −59.1% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 15 | 21 | +7.99 | +92.9% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Doncaster · Away10 Aug 2024 | L 1-4 | 0 | −0.73 | −0.73 |
| M2 | Harrogate · Home17 Aug 2024 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.45 | −1.18 |
| M3 | Newport County · Away24 Aug 2024 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.25 | −2.43 |
| M4 | Colchester · Home31 Aug 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.34 | −2.77 |
| M5 | Notts County · Away7 Sep 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.96 | −3.73 |
| M6 | Crewe · Home14 Sep 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.44 | −5.18 |
| M7 | Port Vale · Home21 Sep 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.08 | −5.25 |
| M8 | Cheltenham · Away1 Oct 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.20 | −6.46 |
| M9 | Morecambe · Home5 Oct 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.40 | −5.05 |
| M10 | Gillingham · Away12 Oct 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.17 | −2.88 |
| M11 | Barrow · Home19 Oct 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.68 | −1.20 |
| M12 | Milton Keynes Dons · Away22 Oct 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.75 | −1.95 |
| M13 | Walsall · Home26 Oct 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | 0.00 | −1.95 |
| M14 | Chesterfield · Away9 Nov 2024 | W 3-0 | 3 | +2.28 | +0.33 |
| M15 | Swindon · Home16 Nov 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.60 | −0.27 |
| M16 | AFC Wimbledon · Away19 Nov 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.16 | −0.11 |
| M17 | Grimsby · Away3 Dec 2024 | L 2-5 | 0 | −1.26 | −1.36 |
| M18 | Bromley · Home7 Dec 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.41 | −2.77 |
| M19 | Fleetwood Town · Away16 Dec 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.04 | −2.74 |
| M20 | Salford · Home21 Dec 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.22 | −3.96 |
| M21 | Carlisle · Away29 Dec 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.29 | −5.25 |
| M22 | Grimsby · Home1 Jan 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.55 | −3.70 |
| M23 | Colchester · Away4 Jan 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +2.08 | −1.62 |
| M24 | Notts County · Home18 Jan 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.16 | −2.78 |
| M25 | Crewe · Away25 Jan 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.07 | −0.71 |
| M26 | Cheltenham · Home28 Jan 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.59 | −1.30 |
| M27 | Port Vale · Away1 Feb 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.95 | −2.25 |
| M28 | AFC Wimbledon · Home8 Feb 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.11 | −2.36 |
| M29 | Bradford · Away11 Feb 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.73 | −3.09 |
| M30 | Morecambe · Away15 Feb 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.28 | −4.36 |
| M31 | Doncaster · Home22 Feb 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.07 | −5.43 |
| M32 | Tranmere · Away25 Feb 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.86 | −3.58 |
| M33 | Harrogate · Away1 Mar 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.24 | −4.82 |
| M34 | Milton Keynes Dons · Home4 Mar 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.61 | −3.21 |
| M35 | Barrow · Away8 Mar 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.04 | −4.25 |
| M36 | Newport County · Home11 Mar 2025 | W 5-0 | 3 | +1.14 | −3.12 |
| M37 | Gillingham · Home15 Mar 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.45 | −3.57 |
| M38 | Swindon · Away22 Mar 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.02 | −3.55 |
| M39 | Bradford · Home29 Mar 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.03 | −3.53 |
| M40 | Fleetwood Town · Home1 Apr 2025 | L 1-4 | 0 | −1.32 | −4.85 |
| M41 | Bromley · Away5 Apr 2025 | L 0-4 | 0 | −1.21 | −6.06 |
| M42 | Tranmere · Home12 Apr 2025 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.28 | −6.35 |
| M43 | Salford · Away18 Apr 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.07 | −4.28 |
| M44 | Carlisle · Home21 Apr 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.50 | −4.77 |
| M45 | Walsall · Away26 Apr 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.25 | −2.53 |
| M46 | Chesterfield · Home3 May 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.66 | −3.19 |
| Total | 50 | −3.19 | |||