Points
78Points expected by the market
74.76Gap
+3.24Yield
−5.7%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 2 | 6 | +1.60 | +40.5% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 25 | 49 | +4.09 | +0.4% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 19 | 23 | −2.45 | −18.6% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 2 | 6 | +1.60 | +40.5% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 17 | 42 | +10.45 | +34.9% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 4 | 7 | +1.34 | +25.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 8 | 7 | −6.36 | −73.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 15 | 16 | −3.79 | −30.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Milton Keynes Dons · Away10 Aug 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.85 | +1.85 |
| M2 | Salford · Home17 Aug 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.94 | +0.92 |
| M3 | Bromley · Home24 Aug 2024 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.14 | +2.06 |
| M4 | Grimsby · Away31 Aug 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.60 | +0.46 |
| M5 | Carlisle · Home7 Sep 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.25 | +1.71 |
| M6 | Walsall · Away14 Sep 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.25 | +0.46 |
| M7 | AFC Wimbledon · Home21 Sep 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.47 | −0.02 |
| M8 | Harrogate · Away28 Sep 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.74 | −1.75 |
| M9 | Morecambe · Away1 Oct 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.62 | −2.38 |
| M10 | Newport County · Home7 Oct 2024 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.84 | −1.53 |
| M11 | Tranmere · Away12 Oct 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.63 | +0.10 |
| M12 | Gillingham · Home19 Oct 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.22 | +1.32 |
| M13 | Cheltenham · Away22 Oct 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.63 | +0.69 |
| M14 | Doncaster · Home26 Oct 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.33 | −0.64 |
| M15 | Fleetwood Town · Away9 Nov 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.34 | −1.98 |
| M16 | Colchester · Away16 Nov 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.38 | −2.36 |
| M17 | Barrow · Home3 Dec 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.72 | −3.08 |
| M18 | Crewe · Away7 Dec 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.13 | −3.21 |
| M19 | Swindon · Home14 Dec 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.98 | −2.23 |
| M20 | Notts County · Away21 Dec 2024 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.20 | −3.42 |
| M21 | Port Vale · Home26 Dec 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.49 | −1.93 |
| M22 | Chesterfield · Home29 Dec 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.29 | −0.64 |
| M23 | Barrow · Away1 Jan 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.98 |
| M24 | Grimsby · Home4 Jan 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.22 | +0.24 |
| M25 | Carlisle · Away18 Jan 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.42 | +1.65 |
| M26 | Walsall · Home25 Jan 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.65 | +3.31 |
| M27 | Morecambe · Home28 Jan 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.94 | +4.24 |
| M28 | AFC Wimbledon · Away1 Feb 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.19 | +3.06 |
| M29 | Harrogate · Home8 Feb 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.99 | +4.05 |
| M30 | Accrington · Home11 Feb 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.97 | +5.02 |
| M31 | Newport County · Away15 Feb 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.88 | +4.14 |
| M32 | Milton Keynes Dons · Home22 Feb 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.19 | +5.32 |
| M33 | Bromley · Away25 Feb 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.54 | +6.86 |
| M34 | Salford · Away1 Mar 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.46 | +8.32 |
| M35 | Cheltenham · Home4 Mar 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.05 | +9.37 |
| M36 | Gillingham · Away8 Mar 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.58 | +7.79 |
| M37 | Tranmere · Home15 Mar 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −2.03 | +5.76 |
| M38 | Colchester · Home22 Mar 2025 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.36 | +7.13 |
| M39 | Accrington · Away29 Mar 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.73 | +6.40 |
| M40 | Port Vale · Away1 Apr 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.33 | +5.06 |
| M41 | Crewe · Home5 Apr 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.15 | +6.22 |
| M42 | Swindon · Away12 Apr 2025 | L 4-5 | 0 | −1.55 | +4.66 |
| M43 | Notts County · Home17 Apr 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.62 | +4.04 |
| M44 | Chesterfield · Away21 Apr 2025 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.41 | +3.63 |
| M45 | Doncaster · Away26 Apr 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.15 | +2.48 |
| M46 | Fleetwood Town · Home3 May 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.76 | +3.24 |
| Total | 78 | +3.24 | |||