Points
42Points expected by the market
55.84Gap
−13.84Yield
−32.9%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 6 | 4 | −6.46 | −72.7% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 23 | 24 | −5.86 | −27.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 17 | 14 | −1.52 | −26.4% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 6 | 4 | −6.46 | −72.7% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 14 | 14 | −4.65 | −49.1% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 3 | 5 | +2.23 | +28.7% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 9 | 10 | −1.21 | +6.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 14 | 9 | −3.75 | −38.1% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Gillingham · Away10 Aug 2024 | L 1-4 | 0 | −1.05 | −1.05 |
| M2 | Barrow · Home17 Aug 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.57 | +0.51 |
| M3 | Milton Keynes Dons · Away24 Aug 2024 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.93 | −0.42 |
| M4 | Tranmere · Home31 Aug 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.60 | −2.01 |
| M5 | Bradford · Away7 Sep 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.99 | −3.00 |
| M6 | Fleetwood Town · Home14 Sep 2024 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.40 | −4.40 |
| M7 | Swindon · Away21 Sep 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.95 | −2.45 |
| M8 | Grimsby · Home28 Sep 2024 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.66 | −4.11 |
| M9 | Notts County · Home1 Oct 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.34 | −5.46 |
| M10 | Colchester · Away5 Oct 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.06 | −5.52 |
| M11 | AFC Wimbledon · Away12 Oct 2024 | L 0-4 | 0 | −0.93 | −6.45 |
| M12 | Harrogate · Home19 Oct 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.72 | −7.17 |
| M13 | Walsall · Away22 Oct 2024 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.75 | −7.92 |
| M14 | Cheltenham · Home26 Oct 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.71 | −9.63 |
| M15 | Salford · Away9 Nov 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.90 | −7.73 |
| M16 | Bromley · Away16 Nov 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.02 | −7.75 |
| M17 | Doncaster · Home23 Nov 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.06 | −7.69 |
| M18 | Crewe · Home30 Nov 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.24 | −7.92 |
| M19 | Chesterfield · Home14 Dec 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.22 | −9.15 |
| M20 | Port Vale · Away21 Dec 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.11 | −9.04 |
| M21 | Morecambe · Home26 Dec 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.83 | −10.87 |
| M22 | Accrington · Home29 Dec 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.57 | −9.30 |
| M23 | Crewe · Away1 Jan 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −0.99 | −10.30 |
| M24 | Tranmere · Away4 Jan 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.14 | −11.43 |
| M25 | Bradford · Home18 Jan 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.13 | −12.57 |
| M26 | Fleetwood Town · Away25 Jan 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.19 | −10.38 |
| M27 | Notts County · Away28 Jan 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.73 | −11.11 |
| M28 | Swindon · Home1 Feb 2025 | L 1-5 | 0 | −1.41 | −12.52 |
| M29 | Grimsby · Away8 Feb 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.16 | −13.68 |
| M30 | Newport County · Away11 Feb 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.43 | −15.11 |
| M31 | Colchester · Home15 Feb 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.24 | −15.35 |
| M32 | Gillingham · Home22 Feb 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.47 | −15.82 |
| M33 | Barrow · Away27 Feb 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.85 | −13.97 |
| M34 | Walsall · Home4 Mar 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.15 | −14.12 |
| M35 | Harrogate · Away8 Mar 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.38 | −15.50 |
| M36 | AFC Wimbledon · Home15 Mar 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.20 | −16.70 |
| M37 | Bromley · Home22 Mar 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.49 | −15.21 |
| M38 | Milton Keynes Dons · Home25 Mar 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.46 | −15.67 |
| M39 | Doncaster · Away29 Mar 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.70 | −16.37 |
| M40 | Chesterfield · Away1 Apr 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.84 | −17.21 |
| M41 | Newport County · Home5 Apr 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.06 | −16.15 |
| M42 | Morecambe · Away12 Apr 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.78 | −14.37 |
| M43 | Port Vale · Home18 Apr 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +2.00 | −12.37 |
| M44 | Accrington · Away21 Apr 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.22 | −12.59 |
| M45 | Cheltenham · Away26 Apr 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.41 | −14.01 |
| M46 | Salford · Home3 May 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.17 | −13.84 |
| Total | 42 | −13.84 | |||