Points
70Points expected by the market
72.48Gap
−2.48Yield
−10.8%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 2 | 6 | +1.55 | +38.5% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 21 | 36 | −1.91 | −20.6% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 20 | 25 | −2.04 | −9.7% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 3 | 3 | −0.09 | +16.7% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.68 | +31.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 17 | 29 | −2.01 | −25.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 5 | 8 | +0.86 | +1.6% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.87 | +46.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 4 | 7 | +0.11 | −1.8% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 15 | 17 | −2.90 | −13.5% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 3 | 3 | −0.09 | +16.7% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Swindon · Home9 Aug 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.91 | −0.91 |
| M2 | Crewe · Away17 Aug 2024 | W 5-0 | 3 | +1.49 | +0.58 |
| M3 | Salford · Home24 Aug 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.04 | −0.46 |
| M4 | Gillingham · Away31 Aug 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.41 | −1.87 |
| M5 | Grimsby · Home7 Sep 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.05 | −0.83 |
| M6 | Port Vale · Away14 Sep 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.35 | −2.17 |
| M7 | Cheltenham · Home21 Sep 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.06 | −3.24 |
| M8 | Doncaster · Away28 Sep 2024 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.78 | −1.45 |
| M9 | Bromley · Away1 Oct 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.58 | −2.03 |
| M10 | Walsall · Home5 Oct 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.56 | −2.59 |
| M11 | Notts County · Home12 Oct 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.58 | −3.17 |
| M12 | Newport County · Away18 Oct 2024 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.32 | −1.86 |
| M13 | Colchester · Home22 Oct 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.84 | −2.70 |
| M14 | Morecambe · Away26 Oct 2024 | W 5-2 | 3 | +1.32 | −1.38 |
| M15 | Accrington · Home9 Nov 2024 | L 0-3 | 0 | −2.06 | −3.44 |
| M16 | Harrogate · Away16 Nov 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.95 | −5.39 |
| M17 | Barrow · Home23 Nov 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.28 | −4.11 |
| M18 | Milton Keynes Dons · Away3 Dec 2024 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.18 | −5.29 |
| M19 | Tranmere · Home7 Dec 2024 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.25 | −4.04 |
| M20 | Carlisle · Away14 Dec 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.50 | −2.54 |
| M21 | AFC Wimbledon · Home21 Dec 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.50 | −1.05 |
| M22 | Fleetwood Town · Away26 Dec 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.28 | −2.32 |
| M23 | Bradford · Away29 Dec 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.02 | −3.34 |
| M24 | Milton Keynes Dons · Home1 Jan 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.49 | −4.83 |
| M25 | Grimsby · Away18 Jan 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.36 | −5.19 |
| M26 | Port Vale · Home25 Jan 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.55 | −5.74 |
| M27 | Bromley · Home28 Jan 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.33 | −4.41 |
| M28 | Cheltenham · Away1 Feb 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.45 | −5.86 |
| M29 | Doncaster · Home6 Feb 2025 | W 5-2 | 3 | +1.71 | −4.15 |
| M30 | Walsall · Away15 Feb 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.14 | −5.29 |
| M31 | Swindon · Away22 Feb 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.36 | −6.65 |
| M32 | Crewe · Home1 Mar 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.65 | −8.30 |
| M33 | Colchester · Away4 Mar 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.01 | −9.30 |
| M34 | Newport County · Home8 Mar 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.96 | −8.34 |
| M35 | Salford · Away11 Mar 2025 | W 4-0 | 3 | +1.72 | −6.63 |
| M36 | Notts County · Away15 Mar 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.94 | −4.69 |
| M37 | Harrogate · Home22 Mar 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.87 | −5.55 |
| M38 | Barrow · Away29 Mar 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.63 | −3.92 |
| M39 | Carlisle · Home1 Apr 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.10 | −2.82 |
| M40 | Tranmere · Away5 Apr 2025 | L 0-4 | 0 | −1.42 | −4.24 |
| M41 | Gillingham · Home8 Apr 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.73 | −4.97 |
| M42 | Fleetwood Town · Home12 Apr 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.33 | −3.64 |
| M43 | AFC Wimbledon · Away18 Apr 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.09 | −3.73 |
| M44 | Bradford · Home21 Apr 2025 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.30 | −4.04 |
| M45 | Morecambe · Home26 Apr 2025 | W 4-1 | 3 | +0.68 | −3.36 |
| M46 | Accrington · Away3 May 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.87 | −2.48 |
| Total | 70 | −2.48 | |||