Points
58Points expected by the market
59.11Gap
−1.11Yield
−5.5%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 9 | 12 | −3.74 | −10.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 25 | 34 | +1.70 | −21.2% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 12 | 12 | +0.93 | +30.9% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 7 | 9 | −3.41 | −13.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 15 | 26 | +5.98 | +31.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 0 | −1.03 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 2 | 3 | −0.33 | −1.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 10 | 8 | −4.28 | −100.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 11 | 12 | +1.96 | +42.8% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Carlisle · Home10 Aug 2024 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.32 | +1.32 |
| M2 | Morecambe · Away17 Aug 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.31 | +2.63 |
| M3 | Fleetwood Town · Away24 Aug 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.18 | +2.45 |
| M4 | Chesterfield · Home31 Aug 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.70 | +4.15 |
| M5 | Doncaster · Away7 Sep 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.94 | +3.20 |
| M6 | Tranmere · Home14 Sep 2024 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.37 | +4.57 |
| M7 | Notts County · Away21 Sep 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.97 | +6.55 |
| M8 | Barrow · Home28 Sep 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.45 | +8.00 |
| M9 | Grimsby · Home1 Oct 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.64 | +6.36 |
| M10 | Crewe · Away5 Oct 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.33 | +5.03 |
| M11 | Accrington · Home12 Oct 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.92 | +3.11 |
| M12 | Bradford · Away19 Oct 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.94 | +2.17 |
| M13 | Newport County · Home22 Oct 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.92 | +0.25 |
| M14 | Swindon · Away26 Oct 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.20 |
| M15 | Port Vale · Home9 Nov 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.76 | +1.96 |
| M16 | Harrogate · Home23 Nov 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.95 | +0.01 |
| M17 | Bromley · Away4 Dec 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.16 | −1.15 |
| M18 | Salford · Home7 Dec 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.64 | +0.49 |
| M19 | Milton Keynes Dons · Away14 Dec 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.15 | +2.64 |
| M20 | Cheltenham · Home20 Dec 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.50 | +2.13 |
| M21 | Colchester · Away26 Dec 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.01 | +1.12 |
| M22 | AFC Wimbledon · Away30 Dec 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.92 | +0.20 |
| M23 | Bromley · Home2 Jan 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.29 | −1.09 |
| M24 | Doncaster · Home18 Jan 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.18 | −2.27 |
| M25 | Tranmere · Away25 Jan 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.27 | −2.54 |
| M26 | Grimsby · Away28 Jan 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.15 | −2.69 |
| M27 | Notts County · Home1 Feb 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.03 | −3.72 |
| M28 | Barrow · Away8 Feb 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.99 | −4.71 |
| M29 | Walsall · Away11 Feb 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.29 | −4.42 |
| M30 | Crewe · Home15 Feb 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.53 | −4.96 |
| M31 | Carlisle · Away22 Feb 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.23 | −5.18 |
| M32 | Fleetwood Town · Home25 Feb 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.39 | −6.58 |
| M33 | Morecambe · Home1 Mar 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.33 | −5.25 |
| M34 | Newport County · Away4 Mar 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.64 | −6.89 |
| M35 | Bradford · Home8 Mar 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.88 | −5.00 |
| M36 | Accrington · Away15 Mar 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.22 | −5.22 |
| M37 | Walsall · Home22 Mar 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.30 | −5.52 |
| M38 | Harrogate · Away29 Mar 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.32 | −5.84 |
| M39 | Colchester · Home1 Apr 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.30 | −6.14 |
| M40 | Salford · Away5 Apr 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.11 | −6.25 |
| M41 | Chesterfield · Away8 Apr 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.01 | −6.24 |
| M42 | Milton Keynes Dons · Home12 Apr 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.46 | −4.78 |
| M43 | Cheltenham · Away18 Apr 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.32 | −5.11 |
| M44 | AFC Wimbledon · Home21 Apr 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.88 | −3.23 |
| M45 | Swindon · Home26 Apr 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.28 | −3.51 |
| M46 | Port Vale · Away3 May 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.40 | −1.11 |
| Total | 58 | −1.11 | |||